All resolved pollsResolved · 12 SEPT 2026Upset
Crystal PalaceCrowd's pick · 70%2
Ipswich TownWon · Crowd had 15%3
The verdict

The crowd backed Crystal Palace. Ipswich Town won 2–3.

Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town 655 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Crystal Palace, and it went the other way.

70%Crowd on Crystal Palace
51%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters655World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Crystal Palace70%
Ipswich Town ✓15%
Tie15%
OutcomeIpswich Town
Voters655
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals54%
Over 2.5 goals ✓46%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters655
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓59%
No41%
OutcomeYes
Voters655
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Crystal PalaceUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 70%+19pp
Result: Ipswich Town · 1.23
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 54%+7pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.58
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 59%+4pp
Result: Yes · 0.34
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.23
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.58
Will both teams score0.34
Average0.72
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

A lively Palace win: the home side takes all three points in an open, end-to-end game where both teams find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

A tight Palace victory: the home side shuts the game down, keeps Ipswich off the scoresheet, and grinds out a low, controlled win.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 16% of voters

A narrow Palace win in a cagey affair: both sides score but the game stays compact, with Palace edging it by the slimmest of margins.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
62% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 655 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
126%173 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
220%133 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
316%102 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
48%50 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
55%36 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
65%32 voters
Ipswich TownCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
75%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
84%27 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
94%26 voters
Ipswich TownCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
104%24 voters
Ipswich TownCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (655 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 332 · 5%
2 / 3241 · 37%
1 / 3213 · 33%
0 / 3169 · 26%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=655). Average 1.21 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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