All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Los Angeles ChargersCrowd's pick · 50%17
Denver BroncosWon · Crowd had 50%23
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Denver Broncos won 17–23.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 52 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Yes
48%Market price
+52Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsMarket beat the crowd
Denver win by 4 or moreCrowd beat the market
there be more than 42.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario50%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Los Angeles Chargers50%
Denver Broncos ✓50%
OutcomeDenver Broncos
Voters4
ReadMarket
2Will Denver win by 4 or more?
Yes ✓100%
No0%
OutcomeYes
Voters4
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 42.5 points?
Over 42.550%
Under 42.5 ✓50%
OutcomeUnder 42.5
Voters4
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Denver ✓75%
Tie25%
Los Angeles C0%
OutcomeDenver
Voters4
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Los Angeles ChargersMarket
Mkt 38%Crowd 50%+12pp
Result: Denver Broncos · 0.50
: Deep
Will Denver win by 4 or more: YesCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 100%+52pp
Result: Yes · 0.00
: Deep
Will there be more than 42.5 points: Over 42.5Market
Mkt 48%Crowd 50%+2pp
Result: Under 42.5 · 0.50
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: DenverConsensus
Mkt 64%Crowd 75%+11pp
Result: Denver · 0.13
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.50
Will Denver win by 4 or more0.00
Will there be more than 42.5 points0.50
Who leads at half-time0.13
Average0.28
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 50% of voters

A Denver-controlled game from the first whistle, the Broncos building a winning margin of 4 or more in a higher-scoring, free-flowing contest they lead at the break.

Who wins?Denver Broncos
Will Denver win by 4 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Denver
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A tight, low-scoring battle where Denver leads at half but the Chargers grind back to win, somehow covering a 4-plus margin gap in a game that stays under the total.

Who wins?Los Angeles Chargers
Will Denver win by 4 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Denver
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A deadlocked first half gives way to a Chargers win in a defensive, under-the-total affair, with Denver's margin somehow still registering at 4 or more despite the loss.

Who wins?Los Angeles Chargers
Will Denver win by 4 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Denver win by 4 or more?Will there be more than 42.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
150%2 voters
Denver BroncosCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
DenverCalled it!
2.7×
225%1 voter
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Under 42.5Called it!
DenverCalled it!
1.3×
325%1 voter
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Under 42.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
4.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.56How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.7×The most-backed combination drew 2.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 43 · 75%
2 / 41 · 25%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 2.75 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.