All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Las Vegas RaidersCrowd's pick · 100%30
Buffalo BillsWon · Crowd had 0%33
The verdict

The crowd backed Las Vegas Raiders. Buffalo Bills won 30–33.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Buffalo Bills 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 67 points above the market's price on Las Vegas Raiders, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Las Vegas Raiders
33%Market price
+67Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
winsMarket beat the crowd
Buffalo win by 7 or moreCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 53.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Las Vegas Raiders100%
Buffalo Bills ✓0%
OutcomeBuffalo Bills
Voters3
ReadMarket
2Will Buffalo win by 7 or more?
No ✓67%
Yes33%
OutcomeNo
Voters3
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 53.5 points?
Under 53.567%
Over 53.5 ✓33%
OutcomeOver 53.5
Voters3
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Las Vegas67%
Tie ✓33%
Buffalo0%
OutcomeTie
Voters3
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Las Vegas RaidersMarket
Mkt 33%Crowd 100%+67pp
Result: Buffalo Bills · 2.00
: Deep
Will Buffalo win by 7 or more: NoConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 67%+11pp
Result: No · 0.22
: Deep
Will there be more than 53.5 points: Under 53.5Upset
Mkt 51%Crowd 67%+16pp
Result: Over 53.5 · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Las VegasUpset
Mkt 32%Crowd 67%+35pp
Result: Tie · 0.90
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins2.00
Will Buffalo win by 7 or more0.22
Will there be more than 53.5 points0.90
Who leads at half-time0.90
Average1.00
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

A tidy Raiders win built on defensive resistance, Las Vegas controlling the tempo from the front foot and keeping the scoreboard modest throughout.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Will Buffalo win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 53.5 points?Under 53.5
Who leads at half-time?Las Vegas
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

A tight, scrappy contest with neither side pulling clear at the break, before the Raiders grind out a narrow win in a low-scoring affair.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Will Buffalo win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 53.5 points?Under 53.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
Scenario 3 · 33% of voters

A high-octane Raiders statement: Las Vegas out in front early, points flowing freely, and Buffalo unable to close the gap despite a big-margin final deficit.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Will Buffalo win by 7 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 53.5 points?Over 53.5
Who leads at half-time?Las Vegas
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Buffalo win by 7 or more?Will there be more than 53.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%1 voter
Las Vegas RaidersGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 53.5Got it wrong
Las VegasGot it wrong
1.1×
233%1 voter
Las Vegas RaidersGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 53.5Got it wrong
TieCalled it!
2.3×
333%1 voter
Las Vegas RaidersGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 53.5Called it!
Las VegasGot it wrong
4.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.48How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 41 · 33%
1 / 42 · 67%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 1.33 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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