All resolved pollsResolved · 26 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Philadelphia UnionWon · Crowd had 45%4
Orlando City SCCrowd had 39%2
The verdict

The crowd called it — Philadelphia Union won 4–2.

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC 588 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 22 points below the market's price on Philadelphia Union, and the crowd had it.

45%Crowd on Philadelphia Union
67%Market price
-22Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters588World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Philadelphia Union ✓45%
Orlando City SC39%
Tie15%
OutcomePhiladelphia Union
Voters588
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓54%
Under 2.5 goals46%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters588
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓68%
No32%
OutcomeYes
Voters588
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Philadelphia UnionConsensus
Mkt 67%Crowd 45%-22pp
Result: Philadelphia Union · 0.48
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 74%Crowd 54%-20pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.42
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 68%+2pp
Result: Yes · 0.20
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.48
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.42
Will both teams score0.20
Average0.37
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters · came true

The crowd's modal vision: a Philadelphia Union victory in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultPhiladelphia Union
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

A sizeable slice of the crowd pictured Orlando City SC turning the match, with plenty of goals and both teams contributing to the scoresheet.

Match resultOrlando City SC
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tighter Philadelphia Union win where both teams score but the game stays close and contained, goals scarce despite a two-way contest.

Match resultPhiladelphia Union
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
49% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 588 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
120%120 voters
Philadelphia UnionCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
218%103 voters
Orlando City SCGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
311%63 voters
Philadelphia UnionCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
49%55 voters
Philadelphia UnionCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
59%53 voters
Orlando City SCGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
68%45 voters
Orlando City SCGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
75%31 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
85%29 voters
Philadelphia UnionCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
95%29 voters
Orlando City SCGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
105%27 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (588 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3120 · 20%
2 / 3222 · 38%
1 / 3176 · 30%
0 / 370 · 12%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=588). Average 1.67 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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