VoxPop top scenarios
38% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Ivory Coast1
Ecuador0
Crowd called 0 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
51%Crowd
10%Market
+41Divergence
+41 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will there be 3 or more goals scored.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Biggest gap10%51% Yes+41
2Will both teams score?42%68% Yes+26
3Who leads at half-time?28%51% Ecuador+23
4Who wins?40%60% Ecuador+20
UpsetIvory Coast 1–0 Ecuador — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeCôte d'Ivoire
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
3Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.98
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.52
Who leads at half-time0.80
Will both teams score0.92
Average0.81
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
120%263 voters
EcuadorGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
EcuadorGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.9×
29%120 voters
EcuadorGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
EcuadorGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
38%100 voters
EcuadorGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
EcuadorGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.6×
47%87 voters
Côte d'IvoireCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Côte d'IvoireGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
4.2×
55%63 voters
EcuadorGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
65%62 voters
EcuadorGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
EcuadorGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.0×
74%56 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
5.6×
84%53 voters
EcuadorGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
93%45 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
2.1×
103%39 voters
Côte d'IvoireCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Côte d'IvoireGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.30How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 1.33 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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