All resolved pollsResolved · 23 JUN 2026Upset
EnglandCrowd's pick · 87%0
GhanaCrowd had 7%0
The verdict

England 0–0 Ghana

England vs. Ghana 1.4k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 28 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

69%Crowd on Yes
41%Market price
+28Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario43%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
England87%
Ghana7%
Draw5%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes72%
No28%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes69%
No31%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
England79%
Draw12%
Ghana9%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: EnglandUpset
Mkt 79%Crowd 87%+8pp
Result: Draw · 1.66
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 72%+14pp
Result: No · 1.04
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 41%Crowd 69%+28pp
Result: No · 0.95
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: EnglandUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 79%+20pp
Result: Draw · 1.41
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.66
Will there be 3 or more goals scored1.04
Will both teams score0.95
Who leads at half-time1.41
Average1.26
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 43% of voters

A high-scoring England victory, goals flying in at both ends, with England already in front and in control at the break.

Who wins this match?England
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

England dominant and clinical, piling on goals while keeping Ghana off the scoresheet and leading comfortably at half-time.

Who wins this match?England
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?England
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

A tight, scrappy England win with one goal apiece, England edging ahead before the interval in a low-key contest.

Who wins this match?England
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England
66% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
143%595 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
EnglandGot it wrong
1.3×
215%204 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
EnglandGot it wrong
1.0×
39%125 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
EnglandGot it wrong
0.7×
48%114 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
EnglandGot it wrong
1.4×
53%44 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.6×
63%42 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
GhanaGot it wrong
0.8×
72%33 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
2.6×
82%25 voters
GhanaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
GhanaGot it wrong
5.7×
91%20 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.7×
101%18 voters
GhanaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
EnglandGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 410 · 1%
3 / 456 · 4%
2 / 4204 · 15%
1 / 4440 · 32%
0 / 4680 · 49%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 0.76 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.