The matchResolvedUpset
England0
Ghana0
Crowd called 0 of 4 legs; market called 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
69%Crowd
41%Market
+28Divergence

+28 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring, a gap that met a clean sheet on both ends.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap41%69% Yes+28
2Who leads at half-time?59%79% England+20
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?58%72% Yes+14
4Who wins this match?79%87% England+8
How it landed:UpsetEngland 0–0 Ghana — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario43%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
England87%
Ghana7%
Draw5%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes72%
No28%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes69%
No31%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
England79%
Draw12%
Ghana9%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: EnglandUpset
Mkt 79%Crowd 87%+8pp
Result: Draw · 1.66
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 72%+14pp
Result: No · 1.04
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 41%Crowd 69%+28pp
Result: No · 0.95
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: EnglandUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 79%+20pp
Result: Draw · 1.41
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.66
Will there be 3 or more goals scored1.04
Will both teams score0.95
Who leads at half-time1.41
Average1.26
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 43% of voters

A high-scoring England victory, goals flying in at both ends, with England already in front and in control at the break.

Who wins this match?England
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

England dominant and clinical, piling on goals while keeping Ghana off the scoresheet and leading comfortably at half-time.

Who wins this match?England
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?England
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

A tight, scrappy England win with one goal apiece, England edging ahead before the interval in a low-key contest.

Who wins this match?England
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England
66% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
143%595 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
EnglandGot it wrong
1.3×
215%204 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
EnglandGot it wrong
1.0×
39%125 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
EnglandGot it wrong
0.7×
48%114 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
EnglandGot it wrong
1.4×
53%44 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.6×
63%42 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
GhanaGot it wrong
0.8×
72%33 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
2.6×
82%25 voters
GhanaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
GhanaGot it wrong
5.7×
91%20 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.7×
101%18 voters
GhanaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
EnglandGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 410 · 1%
3 / 456 · 4%
2 / 4204 · 15%
1 / 4440 · 32%
0 / 4680 · 49%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 0.76 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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