All resolved pollsResolved · 19 SEPT 2026Upset
Tottenham Hotspur2
Aston VillaWon · Crowd had 34%3
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Aston Villa won 2–3.

Tottenham vs Aston Villa 609 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 10 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Yes
57%Market price
+10Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters609World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Tottenham54%
Aston Villa ✓34%
Tie12%
OutcomeAston Villa
Voters609
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓54%
Under 2.5 goals46%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters609
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters609
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: TottenhamUpset
Mkt 47%Crowd 54%+7pp
Result: Aston Villa · 0.74
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 54%+1pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.42
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 67%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.74
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.42
Will both teams score0.22
Average0.46
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters

A home win in an open, end-to-end game. The crowd's most-backed vision: Spurs take the points in a match where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultTottenham
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters · came true

An upset with attacking football. Villa take all three points in a high-scoring affair where both teams contribute to the scoresheet.

Match resultAston Villa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A tight Spurs win. Both teams score, but the game stays low on goals, with Tottenham grinding out a narrow victory in a compact, competitive contest.

Match resultTottenham
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
52% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 609 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
123%143 voters
TottenhamGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
215%92 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
313%79 voters
TottenhamGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
411%69 voters
TottenhamGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
58%48 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
67%42 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
76%37 voters
TottenhamGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
84%27 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
94%24 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
104%22 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (609 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 392 · 15%
2 / 3236 · 39%
1 / 3192 · 32%
0 / 389 · 15%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=609). Average 1.54 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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