All resolved pollsResolved · 20 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
LiverpoolWon · Crowd had 79%4
VillarrealCrowd had 13%3
The verdict

The crowd called it — Liverpool won 4–3.

Liverpool vs Villarreal 567 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Liverpool, and the crowd had it.

79%Crowd on Liverpool
65%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario45%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters567World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Liverpool ✓79%
Villarreal13%
Tie8%
OutcomeLiverpool
Voters567
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓65%
Under 2.5 goals35%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters567
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓73%
No27%
OutcomeYes
Voters567
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: LiverpoolConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 79%+14pp
Result: Liverpool · 0.07
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 65%0pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.24
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 73%+14pp
Result: Yes · 0.15
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.07
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.24
Will both teams score0.15
Average0.15
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 45% of voters · came true

The crowd's dominant vision: Liverpool win in an open, end-to-end match with both sides finding the net and goals flowing freely.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A minority crowd vision: Liverpool grind out a narrow win, both teams scoring but the match staying tight and low on goals.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A compact crowd cluster: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in a cagey, controlled win with few goals and Villarreal shut out.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
71% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 567 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
145%254 voters
LiverpoolCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
213%75 voters
LiverpoolCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
313%71 voters
LiverpoolCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
48%48 voters
LiverpoolCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
57%42 voters
VillarrealGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
63%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
73%18 voters
VillarrealGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.6×
82%13 voters
VillarrealGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
92%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
101%7 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (567 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3254 · 45%
2 / 3183 · 32%
1 / 3105 · 19%
0 / 325 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=567). Average 2.17 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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