All resolved pollsResolved · 7 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
BotafogoCrowd's pick · 44%1
Vasco da GamaWon · Crowd had 43%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Botafogo. Vasco da Gama won 1–2.

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama 559 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 9 points above the market's price on Botafogo, and it went the other way.

44%Crowd on Botafogo
35%Market price
+9Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters559World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Botafogo44%
Vasco da Gama ✓43%
Tie13%
OutcomeVasco da Gama
Voters559
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓54%
Under 2.5 goals46%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters559
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters559
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: BotafogoMarket
Mkt 35%Crowd 44%+9pp
Result: Vasco da Gama · 0.54
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 54%0pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.42
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 66%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.54
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.42
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.40
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

A Botafogo win in an open, end-to-end derby where both sides find the net and goals flow freely across ninety minutes.

Match resultBotafogo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters · came true

Vasco da Gama upset the hosts in a lively, high-scoring clash where neither defence holds firm and both teams leave their mark.

Match resultVasco da Gama
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Botafogo grind out a narrow win in a tight, low-scoring contest where both teams score but the game stays cagey throughout.

Match resultBotafogo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
49% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 559 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
120%110 voters
BotafogoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
219%108 voters
Vasco da GamaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
310%58 voters
BotafogoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
410%58 voters
Vasco da GamaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
59%52 voters
BotafogoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
68%47 voters
Vasco da GamaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
75%29 voters
Vasco da GamaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
85%26 voters
BotafogoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
94%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
104%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (559 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3108 · 19%
2 / 3209 · 37%
1 / 3172 · 31%
0 / 370 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=559). Average 1.64 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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