All resolved pollsResolved · 10 OCT 2026Upset
Ipswich TownWon · Crowd had 26%2
FulhamCrowd's pick · 52%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Fulham. Ipswich Town won 2–1.

Ipswich Town vs Fulham 544 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Fulham, and it went the other way.

52%Crowd on Fulham
39%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters544World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Fulham52%
Ipswich Town ✓26%
Tie23%
OutcomeIpswich Town
Voters544
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals52%
Over 2.5 goals ✓48%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters544
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓69%
No31%
OutcomeYes
Voters544
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FulhamUpset
Mkt 39%Crowd 52%+13pp
Result: Ipswich Town · 0.87
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 52%+7pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.54
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 69%+8pp
Result: Yes · 0.19
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.87
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.54
Will both teams score0.19
Average0.53
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters

An open, end-to-end affair with Fulham on top, goals flowing at both ends and the game finishing with plenty on the scoresheet.

Match resultFulham
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A tight Fulham victory, both sides finding the net but the game staying close and contained, decided by a narrow margin.

Match resultFulham
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A controlled, low-key Fulham win, one team kept quiet throughout, the scoreline modest and the game never truly opening up.

Match resultFulham
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
48% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 544 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
122%120 voters
FulhamGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
213%70 voters
FulhamGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
313%69 voters
FulhamGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
411%60 voters
Ipswich TownCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
510%54 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
67%38 voters
Ipswich TownCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
76%31 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
85%26 voters
Ipswich TownCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
94%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
104%23 voters
FulhamGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (544 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 360 · 11%
2 / 3204 · 38%
1 / 3187 · 34%
0 / 393 · 17%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=544). Average 1.42 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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