All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Upset
Washington CommandersWon · Crowd had 25%33
Seattle SeahawksCrowd's pick · 75%31
The verdict

The crowd backed Tie 1st Half. Washington Commanders won 33–31.

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 66 points above the market's price on Tie 1st Half, and it went the other way.

75%Crowd on Tie 1st Half
9%Market price
+66Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
winsSurprise
Seattle win by 8 or moreMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 40.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario50%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Seattle Seahawks75%
Washington Commanders ✓25%
OutcomeWashington Commanders
Voters4
ReadUpset
2Will Seattle win by 8 or more?
Yes100%
No ✓0%
OutcomeNo
Voters4
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 40.5 points?
Over 40.5 ✓100%
Under 40.50%
OutcomeOver 40.5
Voters4
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Tie 1st Half75%
Washington wins 1st Half ✓25%
Seattle wins 1st Half0%
OutcomeWashington wins 1st Half
Voters4
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Seattle SeahawksUpset
Mkt 75%Crowd 75%0pp
Result: Washington Commanders · 1.13
: Deep
Will Seattle win by 8 or more: YesMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 100%+54pp
Result: No · 2.00
: Deep
Will there be more than 40.5 points: Over 40.5Crowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 100%+51pp
Result: Over 40.5 · 0.00
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Tie 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 9%Crowd 75%+66pp
Result: Washington wins 1st Half · 1.13
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.13
Will Seattle win by 8 or more2.00
Will there be more than 40.5 points0.00
Who leads at half-time1.13
Average1.06
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 50% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Seattle pulling clear in a high-scoring game, with neither side blinking in a deadlocked first half before the Seahawks pulled away.

Who wins?Seattle Seahawks
Will Seattle win by 8 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A minority picture of Washington edging the first half, only for Seattle to storm back and win comfortably in a points-heavy contest.

Who wins?Seattle Seahawks
Will Seattle win by 8 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Washington wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

An outlier vision where Washington ultimately wins despite the crowd's Seattle lean, set against a tied first half and a game that runs up the scoreboard.

Who wins?Washington Commanders
Will Seattle win by 8 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Seattle win by 8 or more?Will there be more than 40.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
150%2 voters
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 40.5Called it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
225%1 voter
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 40.5Called it!
Washington wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.3×
325%1 voter
Washington CommandersCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 40.5Called it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.13How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call0.9×The most-backed combination drew 0.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 42 · 50%
1 / 42 · 50%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 1.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.