All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Crowd beat the market
Seattle SeahawksCrowd had 25%29
San Francisco 49ersWon · Crowd had 75%32
The verdict

The crowd backed a draw. San Francisco 49ers won 29–32.

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 66 points above the market's price on Tie, and it went the other way.

75%Crowd on Tie
9%Market price
+66Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
winsCrowd beat the market
Seattle win by 3 or moreCrowd beat the market
there be more than 47.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario50%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
San Francisco 49ers ✓75%
Seattle Seahawks25%
OutcomeSan Francisco 49ers
Voters4
ReadCrowd
2Will Seattle win by 3 or more?
No ✓100%
Yes0%
OutcomeNo
Voters4
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 47.5 points?
Over 47.5 ✓75%
Under 47.525%
OutcomeOver 47.5
Voters4
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Tie75%
Seattle25%
San Francisco ✓0%
OutcomeSan Francisco
Voters4
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: San Francisco 49ersCrowd
Mkt 39%Crowd 75%+36pp
Result: San Francisco 49ers · 0.13
: Deep
Will Seattle win by 3 or more: NoCrowd
Mkt 44%Crowd 100%+56pp
Result: No · 0.00
: Deep
Will there be more than 47.5 points: Over 47.5Crowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 75%+28pp
Result: Over 47.5 · 0.13
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: TieUpset
Mkt 9%Crowd 75%+66pp
Result: San Francisco · 1.63
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.13
Will Seattle win by 3 or more0.00
Will there be more than 47.5 points0.13
Who leads at half-time1.63
Average0.47
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 50% of voters

A high-scoring, close-margin San Francisco victory with neither side pulling ahead at the break. The crowd's dominant vision of how this game would unfold.

Who wins?San Francisco 49ers
Will Seattle win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A tight, low-scoring 49ers win with Seattle briefly in front at halftime. A minority read picturing a grind-it-out game that flipped late.

Who wins?San Francisco 49ers
Will Seattle win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Under 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Seattle
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A narrow Seahawks win in a free-scoring game, with the scoreboard level at the half. The crowd's lone scenario where Seattle came out on top.

Who wins?Seattle Seahawks
Will Seattle win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Seattle win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 47.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
150%2 voters
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 47.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
1.2×
225%1 voter
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 47.5Got it wrong
SeattleGot it wrong
5.3×
325%1 voter
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 47.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
1.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.39How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 42 · 50%
2 / 42 · 50%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 2.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.