All resolved pollsResolved · 24 OCT 2026Upset
ChelseaCrowd had 74%0
Tottenham Hotspur2
The verdict

The crowd backed Chelsea. Tottenham Hotspur won 0–2.

Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur 544 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 17 points above the market's price on Chelsea, and it went the other way.

74%Crowd on Chelsea
57%Market price
+17Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario44%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters544World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Chelsea74%
Tottenham ✓15%
Tie10%
OutcomeTottenham
Voters544
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals63%
Under 2.5 goals ✓37%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters544
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes74%
No ✓26%
OutcomeNo
Voters544
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ChelseaUpset
Mkt 57%Crowd 74%+17pp
Result: Tottenham · 1.28
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 63%0pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.79
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 61%Crowd 74%+13pp
Result: No · 1.10
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.28
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.79
Will both teams score1.10
Average1.06
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 44% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Chelsea controlling a free-flowing derby, both sides scoring in an open, high-tempo west London clash.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A minority but tightly held picture: Chelsea grinding out a clean, low-scoring win, shutting Spurs out in a cagey, disciplined contest.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A compact Chelsea win where Spurs grab a consolation but the game stays tight, goals scarce and the hosts still come out on top.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
69% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 544 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
144%240 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
213%69 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
312%67 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
47%38 voters
TottenhamCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
55%27 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.4×
64%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
74%20 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
83%17 voters
TottenhamCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
93%17 voters
TottenhamCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.2×
102%12 voters
TottenhamCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (544 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 317 · 3%
2 / 3108 · 20%
1 / 3159 · 29%
0 / 3260 · 48%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=544). Average 0.78 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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