The matchResolvedUpset
Netherlands1 (2)
Morocco1 (3)
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs; market called 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
74%Crowd
49%Market
+25Divergence

+25 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran 25 points above market on both teams scoring. And that read landed.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap49%74% Yes+25
2Who leads at half-time?34%45% Netherlands wins 1st Half+11
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?42%51% Yes+9
4Who wins this match?63%61% Netherlands advances-2
How it landed:UpsetNetherlands 1–1 Morocco (Morocco win 3–2 on penalties) — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.7kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Netherlands advances61%
Morocco advances39%
OutcomeMorocco advances
Voters1.7k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes51%
No49%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.7k
ReadMarket
3Who leads at half-time?
Netherlands wins 1st Half45%
Tie 1st Half30%
Morocco wins 1st Half25%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters1.7k
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes74%
No26%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.7k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Netherlands advancesUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 61%-2pp
Result: Morocco advances · 0.74
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 42%Crowd 51%+9pp
Result: No · 0.52
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Netherlands wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 34%Crowd 45%+11pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.75
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 74%+25pp
Result: Yes · 0.14
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.74
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.52
Who leads at half-time0.75
Will both teams score in regulation time0.14
Average0.54
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 18% of voters

A high-scoring Dutch-controlled match: Netherlands in front at the break, both sides on the board, and the Dutch advancing in a lively, open game.

Who wins this match?Netherlands advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Netherlands wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

Netherlands in command at half-time and through to the next round, but the goals kept tight. Both teams scoring in a compact, low-volume contest.

Who wins this match?Netherlands advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Netherlands wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Morocco seize the initiative early, lead at the break, both teams contribute to a busy scoreline, and the Atlas Lions advance from an open, eventful match.

Who wins this match?Morocco advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Morocco wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
37% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.7k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
118%308 voters
Netherlands advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Netherlands wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.8×
211%193 voters
Netherlands advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Netherlands wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
38%128 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Morocco wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.1×
47%116 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Morocco wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.0×
56%108 voters
Netherlands advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
66%102 voters
Netherlands advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
75%83 voters
Netherlands advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Netherlands wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
84%72 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
94%67 voters
Netherlands advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
104%64 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.7k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 464 · 4%
3 / 4378 · 23%
2 / 4659 · 39%
1 / 4517 · 31%
0 / 461 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.7k). Average 1.92 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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