All resolved pollsResolved · 29 JUN 2026Upset
Netherlands1 (2)
Morocco1 (3)
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Morocco won 1–1.

Netherlands vs Morocco 1.7k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

74%Crowd on Yes
49%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.7kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Netherlands advances61%
Morocco advances39%
OutcomeMorocco advances
Voters1.7k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes51%
No49%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.7k
ReadMarket
3Who leads at half-time?
Netherlands wins 1st Half45%
Tie 1st Half30%
Morocco wins 1st Half25%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters1.7k
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes74%
No26%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.7k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Netherlands advancesUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 61%-2pp
Result: Morocco advances · 0.74
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 42%Crowd 51%+9pp
Result: No · 0.52
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Netherlands wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 34%Crowd 45%+11pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.75
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 74%+25pp
Result: Yes · 0.14
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.74
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.52
Who leads at half-time0.75
Will both teams score in regulation time0.14
Average0.54
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 18% of voters

A high-scoring Dutch-controlled match: Netherlands in front at the break, both sides on the board, and the Dutch advancing in a lively, open game.

Who wins this match?Netherlands advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Netherlands wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

Netherlands in command at half-time and through to the next round, but the goals kept tight. Both teams scoring in a compact, low-volume contest.

Who wins this match?Netherlands advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Netherlands wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Morocco seize the initiative early, lead at the break, both teams contribute to a busy scoreline, and the Atlas Lions advance from an open, eventful match.

Who wins this match?Morocco advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Morocco wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
37% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.7k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
118%308 voters
Netherlands advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Netherlands wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.8×
211%193 voters
Netherlands advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Netherlands wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
38%128 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Morocco wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.1×
47%116 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Morocco wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.0×
56%108 voters
Netherlands advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
66%102 voters
Netherlands advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
75%83 voters
Netherlands advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Netherlands wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
84%72 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
94%67 voters
Netherlands advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
104%64 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.7k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 464 · 4%
3 / 4378 · 23%
2 / 4659 · 39%
1 / 4517 · 31%
0 / 461 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.7k). Average 1.92 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.