VoxPop top scenarios
68% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
SpainCrowd had 83%0
Cape Verde0
The verdict
Spain 0–0 Cape Verde Islands
Spain vs. Cabo Verde 1.2k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 27 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.
60%Crowd on Yes
33%Market price
+27Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.58
Will there be 3 or more goals scored1.25
Who leads at half-time1.49
Will both teams score0.72
Average1.26
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
134%409 voters
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
227%323 voters
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
SpainGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
37%84 voters
SpainGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
SpainGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
47%81 voters
SpainGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
53%40 voters
Cabo VerdeGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Cabo VerdeGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
6.4×
63%31 voters
Cabo VerdeGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
72%24 voters
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Cabo VerdeGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
82%23 voters
SpainGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
2.0×
92%21 voters
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
101%15 voters
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 0.77 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.