VoxPop top scenarios
68% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Spain0
Cape Verde0
Crowd called 0 of 4 legs; market called 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
60%Crowd
33%Market
+27Divergence
+27 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will both teams score.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap33%60% Yes+27
2Who leads at half-time?71%81% Spain+10
3Who wins?91%83% Spain-8
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?71%79% Yes+8
UpsetSpain 0–0 Cape Verde Islands — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.58
Will there be 3 or more goals scored1.25
Who leads at half-time1.49
Will both teams score0.72
Average1.26
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
134%409 voters
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
227%323 voters
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
SpainGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
37%84 voters
SpainGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
SpainGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
47%81 voters
SpainGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
53%40 voters
Cabo VerdeGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Cabo VerdeGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
6.4×
63%31 voters
Cabo VerdeGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
72%24 voters
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Cabo VerdeGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
82%23 voters
SpainGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
2.0×
92%21 voters
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
101%15 voters
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
SpainGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 0.77 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching