VoxPop top scenarios
64% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.5k voters
SpainWon · Crowd had 82%5
Saudi ArabiaCrowd had 13%0
The verdict
The crowd backed Yes. Spain won 5–0.
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia 1.5k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 36 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.
68%Crowd on Yes
32%Market price
+36Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario37%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.5kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeSpain
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.5k
ReadMarket
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeSpain
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.05
Will both teams score0.92
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.18
Who leads at half-time0.07
Average0.31
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?
137%540 voters
SpainCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
SpainCalled it!
1.2×
217%253 voters
SpainCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SpainCalled it!
1.2×
310%151 voters
SpainCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
SpainCalled it!
0.8×
48%121 voters
SpainCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
SpainCalled it!
1.3×
55%78 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
6.6×
62%31 voters
SpainCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
0.4×
72%27 voters
SpainCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.5×
82%25 voters
SpainCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.1×
92%23 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
SpainCalled it!
0.3×
101%22 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
4.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.5k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.21How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.5k). Average 2.62 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.