All resolved pollsResolved · 22 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
BournemouthWon · Crowd had 21%3
AC Milan0
The verdict

The crowd backed Milan. Bournemouth won 3–0.

AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan 549 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 40 points above the market's price on Milan, and it went the other way.

71%Crowd on Milan
31%Market price
+40Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario38%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters549World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Milan71%
Bournemouth ✓21%
Tie9%
OutcomeBournemouth
Voters549
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓63%
Under 2.5 goals37%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters549
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes71%
No ✓29%
OutcomeNo
Voters549
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: MilanMarket
Mkt 31%Crowd 71%+40pp
Result: Bournemouth · 1.14
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 63%+7pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.27
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 71%+12pp
Result: No · 1.01
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.14
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.27
Will both teams score1.01
Average0.81
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 38% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Milan winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a high-scoring affair.

Match resultMilan
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A disciplined, low-scoring Milan victory. One side shut out, the game decided by a narrow, controlled margin.

Match resultMilan
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Milan edging a tight game where both teams contributed but the scoring stayed modest and the result stayed close.

Match resultMilan
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
63% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 549 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
138%209 voters
MilanGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
213%70 voters
MilanGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.7×
312%68 voters
MilanGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
411%58 voters
BournemouthCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
58%42 voters
MilanGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.6×
64%22 voters
BournemouthCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.8×
74%20 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
83%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
93%18 voters
BournemouthCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
103%15 voters
BournemouthCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (549 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 315 · 3%
2 / 3125 · 23%
1 / 3323 · 59%
0 / 386 · 16%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=549). Average 1.13 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.