All resolved pollsResolved · 25 JUN 2026Upset
EcuadorWon · Crowd had 13%2
GermanyCrowd's pick · 81%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Germany. Ecuador won 2–1.

Ecuador vs. Germany 1k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 38 points above the market's price on Germany, and it went the other way.

75%Crowd on Germany
37%Market price
+38Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario35%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Germany81%
Ecuador13%
Draw6%
OutcomeEcuador
Voters1k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes71%
No29%
OutcomeYes
Voters1k
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
Germany75%
Draw14%
Ecuador11%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1k
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score?
Yes61%
No39%
OutcomeYes
Voters1k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: GermanyUpset
Mkt 50%Crowd 81%+31pp
Result: Ecuador · 1.42
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 71%+17pp
Result: Yes · 0.17
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: GermanyMarket
Mkt 37%Crowd 75%+38pp
Result: Draw · 1.31
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 61%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.30
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.42
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.17
Who leads at half-time1.31
Will both teams score0.30
Average0.80
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 35% of voters

A high-scoring, Germany-dominant display: Germany in front at the break, both sides finding the net in an open, end-to-end contest that tips past three goals.

Who wins this match?Germany
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Germany
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

Germany in control from the off, leading at half-time and keeping Ecuador scoreless while piling on enough goals to clear the three-goal mark themselves.

Who wins this match?Germany
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Germany
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

A tight, disciplined Germany win: ahead at the break, shutting Ecuador out, and keeping the scoring lean with fewer than three goals across the full ninety minutes.

Who wins this match?Germany
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Germany
Will both teams score?No
63% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
135%351 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
219%196 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
GermanyGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
39%88 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
GermanyGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
47%73 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
54%38 voters
EcuadorCalled it!
YesCalled it!
EcuadorGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
6.1×
63%34 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
72%25 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
82%18 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
EcuadorGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.5×
92%17 voters
EcuadorCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
EcuadorGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
10.4×
102%16 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 48 · 1%
3 / 498 · 10%
2 / 4468 · 46%
1 / 4342 · 34%
0 / 494 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1k). Average 1.59 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.