The matchResolvedUpset
Ecuador2
Germany1
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
75%Crowd
37%Market
+38Divergence

+38 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd vs market gap widest on half-time leader, crowd heavily above market on Germany, a read that did not land.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap37%75% Germany+38
2Who wins this match?50%81% Germany+31
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?54%71% Yes+17
4Will both teams score?55%61% Yes+6
How it landed:UpsetEcuador 2–1 Germany — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario35%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Germany81%
Ecuador13%
Draw6%
OutcomeEcuador
Voters1k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes71%
No29%
OutcomeYes
Voters1k
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
Germany75%
Draw14%
Ecuador11%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1k
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score?
Yes61%
No39%
OutcomeYes
Voters1k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: GermanyUpset
Mkt 50%Crowd 81%+31pp
Result: Ecuador · 1.42
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 71%+17pp
Result: Yes · 0.17
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: GermanyMarket
Mkt 37%Crowd 75%+38pp
Result: Draw · 1.31
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 61%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.30
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.42
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.17
Who leads at half-time1.31
Will both teams score0.30
Average0.80
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 35% of voters

A high-scoring, Germany-dominant display: Germany in front at the break, both sides finding the net in an open, end-to-end contest that tips past three goals.

Who wins this match?Germany
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Germany
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

Germany in control from the off, leading at half-time and keeping Ecuador scoreless while piling on enough goals to clear the three-goal mark themselves.

Who wins this match?Germany
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Germany
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

A tight, disciplined Germany win: ahead at the break, shutting Ecuador out, and keeping the scoring lean with fewer than three goals across the full ninety minutes.

Who wins this match?Germany
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Germany
Will both teams score?No
63% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
135%351 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
219%196 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
GermanyGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
39%88 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
GermanyGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
47%73 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
54%38 voters
EcuadorCalled it!
YesCalled it!
EcuadorGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
6.1×
63%34 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
72%25 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
82%18 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
EcuadorGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.5×
92%17 voters
EcuadorCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
EcuadorGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
10.4×
102%16 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 48 · 1%
3 / 498 · 10%
2 / 4468 · 46%
1 / 4342 · 34%
0 / 494 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1k). Average 1.59 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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