All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
New England PatriotsWon · Crowd had 100%26
New York JetsCrowd had 0%19
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 43.5. New England Patriots won 26–19.

New England Patriots vs New York Jets 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 50 points above the market's price on Over 43.5, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Over 43.5
50%Market price
+50Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
New England win by 8 or…Market beat the crowd
there be more than 43.5…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New England Patriots ✓100%
New York Jets0%
OutcomeNew England Patriots
Voters3
ReadConsensus
2Will New England win by 8 or more?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters3
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 43.5 points?
Over 43.5 ✓100%
Under 43.50%
OutcomeOver 43.5
Voters3
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
New England ✓67%
New York J33%
Tie0%
OutcomeNew England
Voters3
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New England PatriotsConsensus
Mkt 76%Crowd 100%+24pp
Result: New England Patriots · 0.00
: Deep
Will New England win by 8 or more: YesMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 67%+20pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
Will there be more than 43.5 points: Over 43.5Consensus
Mkt 50%Crowd 100%+50pp
Result: Over 43.5 · 0.00
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New EnglandConsensus
Mkt 80%Crowd 67%-13pp
Result: New England · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.00
Will New England win by 8 or more0.90
Will there be more than 43.5 points0.00
Who leads at half-time0.22
Average0.28
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters · came true

A Patriots-controlled game from the front, points flowing freely, but the winning margin stays modest. A competitive, high-scoring affair that stays within reach.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Will New England win by 8 or more?No
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Over 43.5
Who leads at half-time?New England
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

Patriots dominant from kickoff, building a commanding lead while both offences combine to push the total well past the mark. A convincing, high-scoring Patriots statement.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Will New England win by 8 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Over 43.5
Who leads at half-time?New England
Scenario 3 · 33% of voters

Jets seize the early initiative and lead at the break, but New England storm back to win by a wide margin in a points-heavy game that flips dramatically in the second half.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Will New England win by 8 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Over 43.5
Who leads at half-time?New York J
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will New England win by 8 or more?Will there be more than 43.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%1 voter
New England PatriotsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 43.5Called it!
New EnglandCalled it!
1.5×
233%1 voter
New England PatriotsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 43.5Called it!
New EnglandCalled it!
0.7×
333%1 voter
New England PatriotsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 43.5Called it!
New York JGot it wrong
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.22How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 41 · 33%
3 / 41 · 33%
2 / 41 · 33%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 3 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.