All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Upset
Chicago BearsCrowd's pick · 63%3
Minnesota VikingsWon · Crowd had 37%9
The verdict

The crowd backed Chicago Bears -5.5. Minnesota Vikings won 3–9.

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings 533 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Chicago Bears -5.5, and it went the other way.

58%Crowd on Chicago Bears -5.5
46%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
winsSurprise
Chicago win by 6 or moreMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 49.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters533World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Chicago Bears63%
Minnesota Vikings ✓37%
OutcomeMinnesota Vikings
Voters533
ReadUpset
2Will Chicago win by 6 or more?
Chicago Bears -5.558%
Minnesota Vikings +5.5 ✓42%
OutcomeMinnesota Vikings +5.5
Voters533
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 49.5 points?
Over 49.557%
Under 49.5 ✓43%
OutcomeUnder 49.5
Voters533
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Chicago Bears51%
Minnesota Vikings ✓31%
Tie18%
OutcomeMinnesota Vikings
Voters533
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Chicago BearsUpset
Mkt 66%Crowd 63%-3pp
Result: Minnesota Vikings · 0.79
: Deep
Will Chicago win by 6 or more: Chicago Bears -5.5Market
Mkt 46%Crowd 58%+12pp
Result: Minnesota Vikings +5.5 · 0.67
: Deep
Will there be more than 49.5 points: Over 49.5Market
Mkt 45%Crowd 57%+12pp
Result: Under 49.5 · 0.65
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Chicago BearsUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 51%-5pp
Result: Minnesota Vikings · 0.77
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.79
Will Chicago win by 6 or more0.67
Will there be more than 49.5 points0.65
Who leads at half-time0.77
Average0.72
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

A commanding Bears performance: Chicago controls from the first whistle, leads at the break, wins comfortably by six or more in a high-scoring, open contest.

Who wins?Chicago Bears
Will Chicago win by 6 or more?Chicago Bears -5.5
Will there be more than 49.5 points?Over 49.5
Who leads at half-time?Chicago Bears
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

A Bears win built on defensive grit: Chicago leads at half, pulls clear to cover the spread, but both offences are kept quiet in a low-scoring affair.

Who wins?Chicago Bears
Will Chicago win by 6 or more?Chicago Bears -5.5
Will there be more than 49.5 points?Under 49.5
Who leads at half-time?Chicago Bears
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

A Vikings statement: Minnesota leads at the break and runs out winners, with both teams trading scores in a high-tempo, points-heavy game.

Who wins?Minnesota Vikings
Will Chicago win by 6 or more?Minnesota Vikings +5.5
Will there be more than 49.5 points?Over 49.5
Who leads at half-time?Minnesota Vikings
41% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 533 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Chicago win by 6 or more?Will there be more than 49.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
120%106 voters
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
Chicago Bears -5.5Got it wrong
Over 49.5Got it wrong
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
1.9×
212%65 voters
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
Chicago Bears -5.5Got it wrong
Under 49.5Called it!
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
1.5×
39%48 voters
Minnesota VikingsCalled it!
Minnesota Vikings +5.5Called it!
Over 49.5Got it wrong
Minnesota VikingsCalled it!
3.3×
46%32 voters
Minnesota VikingsCalled it!
Minnesota Vikings +5.5Called it!
Under 49.5Called it!
Minnesota VikingsCalled it!
2.9×
55%25 voters
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
Chicago Bears -5.5Got it wrong
Under 49.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
1.7×
65%25 voters
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
Minnesota Vikings +5.5Called it!
Over 49.5Got it wrong
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
0.6×
75%24 voters
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
Chicago Bears -5.5Got it wrong
Over 49.5Got it wrong
Minnesota VikingsCalled it!
0.7×
83%18 voters
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
Minnesota Vikings +5.5Called it!
Under 49.5Called it!
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
0.6×
93%17 voters
Minnesota VikingsCalled it!
Minnesota Vikings +5.5Called it!
Over 49.5Got it wrong
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
0.7×
103%16 voters
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
Minnesota Vikings +5.5Called it!
Over 49.5Got it wrong
Minnesota VikingsCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (533 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.27How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 432 · 6%
3 / 491 · 17%
2 / 4120 · 23%
1 / 4173 · 32%
0 / 4117 · 22%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=533). Average 1.53 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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