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New York Jets
Las Vegas Raiders
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Will Las Vegas win by 2 or more?
75%Crowd
45%Market
+30Divergence

+30 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits 30 points above market on Las Vegas covering a winning margin.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will Las Vegas win by 2 or more?Biggest gap45%75% Yes+30
2Who wins?47%75% Las Vegas Raiders+28
3Who leads at half-time?46%50% Las Vegas+4
4Will there be more than 45.5 points?50%50% Over 45.50
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario50%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Las Vegas Raiders75%
New York Jets25%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
2Will Las Vegas win by 2 or more?
Yes75%
No25%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
3Will there be more than 45.5 points?
Over 45.550%
Under 45.550%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
4Who leads at half-time?
Las Vegas50%
New York J50%
Tie0%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Las Vegas Raiders
Mkt 47%Crowd 75%+28pp
: Thin
Will Las Vegas win by 2 or more: Yes
Mkt 45%Crowd 75%+30pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 45.5 points: Over 45.5
Mkt 50%Crowd 50%0pp
: Thin
Who leads at half-time: Las Vegas
Mkt 46%Crowd 50%+4pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 50% of voters

A dominant Raiders performance: Las Vegas controls from the first half, piles on points in a high-scoring game, and pulls clear by a comfortable margin.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Will Las Vegas win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Over 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Las Vegas
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A scrappy Raiders win: New York leads at the break in a low-scoring grind, but Las Vegas edges it without pulling away convincingly.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Will Las Vegas win by 2 or more?No
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Under 45.5
Who leads at half-time?New York J
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A tight, low-scoring contest where New York leads throughout and holds on, yet the final gap somehow favours Las Vegas by the margin question's measure.

Who wins?New York Jets
Will Las Vegas win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Under 45.5
Who leads at half-time?New York J
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Las Vegas win by 2 or more?Will there be more than 45.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
150%2 voters
Las Vegas RaidersPending
YesPending
Over 45.5Pending
Las VegasPending
3.6×
225%1 voter
Las Vegas RaidersPending
NoPending
Under 45.5Pending
New York JPending
5.3×
325%1 voter
New York JetsPending
YesPending
Under 45.5Pending
New York JPending
5.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.77How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.6×The most-backed combination drew 3.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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