All resolved pollsResolved · 29 OCT 2026Upset
FiorentinaCrowd's pick · 52%
AtalantaCrowd had 35%
Resolved
The verdict

Fiorentina vs Atalanta

Fiorentina vs Atalanta 565 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 8 points above the market's price on Fiorentina, and it went the other way.

52%Crowd on Fiorentina
44%Market price
+8Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters565World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Fiorentina52%
Atalanta35%
Tie ✓13%
OutcomeTie
Voters565
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓51%
Under 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters565
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓68%
No32%
OutcomeYes
Voters565
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FiorentinaUpset
Mkt 44%Crowd 52%+8pp
Result: Tie · 1.15
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 51%-8pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 62%Crowd 68%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.20
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.15
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.48
Will both teams score0.20
Average0.61
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters

The crowd's modal vision: a Fiorentina home win in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultFiorentina
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A sizeable cluster saw Atalanta taking the points in a lively, high-scoring affair with both teams contributing to the tally.

Match resultAtalanta
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

A tight, disciplined Fiorentina victory, kept clean or near-clean, with the game decided by the narrowest of margins and few chances converted.

Match resultFiorentina
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
53% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 565 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
121%119 voters
FiorentinaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
217%97 voters
AtalantaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
314%81 voters
FiorentinaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
413%74 voters
FiorentinaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
57%41 voters
AtalantaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
67%38 voters
AtalantaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
75%31 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
84%25 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
94%20 voters
FiorentinaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.4×
104%20 voters
AtalantaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (565 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 325 · 4%
2 / 3253 · 45%
1 / 3165 · 29%
0 / 3122 · 22%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=565). Average 1.32 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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