All resolved pollsResolved · 9 OCT 2026Upset
Borussia Dortmund2
Werder Bremen2
The verdict

Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen 557 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 10 points below the market's price on Over 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

60%Crowd on Over 2.5 goals
70%Market price
-10Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario41%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters557World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Dortmund75%
Bremen14%
Tie ✓10%
OutcomeTie
Voters557
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓60%
Under 2.5 goals40%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters557
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓69%
No31%
OutcomeYes
Voters557
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: DortmundUpset
Mkt 70%Crowd 75%+5pp
Result: Tie · 1.39
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 70%Crowd 60%-10pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.32
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 69%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.19
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.39
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.32
Will both teams score0.19
Average0.63
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 41% of voters

A Dortmund victory in an open, back-and-forth contest, both defences breached and the goals tally climbing past two.

Match resultDortmund
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Dortmund grinding out a tight, controlled win, keeping Bremen off the scoresheet and the game locked below three goals.

Match resultDortmund
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Dortmund edging it in a low-scoring affair where Bremen still manage a reply, both teams scoring but the game staying tight and contained beneath the goals threshold.

Match resultDortmund
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
66% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 557 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
141%230 voters
DortmundGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
214%78 voters
DortmundGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
311%61 voters
DortmundGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.5×
49%51 voters
DortmundGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
56%33 voters
BremenGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
65%26 voters
BremenGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
73%18 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.6×
83%17 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
93%16 voters
BremenGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
103%15 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (557 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 315 · 3%
2 / 3280 · 50%
1 / 3168 · 30%
0 / 394 · 17%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=557). Average 1.39 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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