All resolved pollsResolved · 14 OCT 2026Upset
Manchester CityCrowd had 51%2
Paris Saint-Germain FC4
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Paris Saint-Germain FC won 2–4.

Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain 571 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

80%Crowd on Yes
67%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario29%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters571World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Manchester City51%
PSG ✓37%
Tie12%
OutcomePSG
Voters571
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓64%
Under 2.5 goals36%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters571
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓80%
No20%
OutcomeYes
Voters571
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Manchester CityUpset
Mkt 43%Crowd 51%+8pp
Result: PSG · 0.67
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 68%Crowd 64%-4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.26
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 67%Crowd 80%+13pp
Result: Yes · 0.08
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.67
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.26
Will both teams score0.08
Average0.34
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 29% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: City win in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely throughout.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 23% of voters · came true

A PSG upset in a high-scoring, mutually dangerous match, both teams threatening and converting in a game that refuses to stay tight.

Match resultPSG
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

City grind out a narrow win in a cagey affair, each side managing a goal but the match staying controlled and low on total output.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
63% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 571 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
129%168 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
223%132 voters
PSGCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
311%62 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
47%39 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
57%39 voters
PSGCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
65%30 voters
PSGCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.0×
75%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
85%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
94%23 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
101%8 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (571 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3132 · 23%
2 / 3244 · 43%
1 / 3148 · 26%
0 / 347 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=571). Average 1.81 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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