All resolved pollsResolved · 7 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
CruzeiroWon · Crowd had 29%2
São Paulo0
The verdict

The crowd backed Sao Paulo. Cruzeiro won 2–0.

Cruzeiro vs São Paulo 565 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 33 points above the market's price on Sao Paulo, and it went the other way.

57%Crowd on Sao Paulo
24%Market price
+33Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario30%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters565World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Sao Paulo57%
Cruzeiro ✓29%
Tie13%
OutcomeCruzeiro
Voters565
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals57%
Under 2.5 goals ✓43%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters565
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes71%
No ✓29%
OutcomeNo
Voters565
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Sao PauloMarket
Mkt 24%Crowd 57%+33pp
Result: Cruzeiro · 0.85
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 57%+8pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.65
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 71%+17pp
Result: No · 1.01
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.85
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.65
Will both teams score1.01
Average0.83
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 30% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: São Paulo take the points in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultSao Paulo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A minority picture of Cruzeiro winning but the game still playing out as a lively, high-scoring affair with both teams contributing to the tally.

Match resultCruzeiro
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

São Paulo edging a tight, low-scoring match where both sides still manage to get on the scoresheet despite few chances overall.

Match resultSao Paulo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
55% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 565 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
130%167 voters
Sao PauloGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
214%81 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
312%65 voters
Sao PauloGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
411%62 voters
Sao PauloGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
57%40 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.0×
66%32 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
75%30 voters
Sao PauloGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
85%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
94%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
102%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (565 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 340 · 7%
2 / 3121 · 21%
1 / 3212 · 38%
0 / 3192 · 34%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=565). Average 1.02 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.