All resolved pollsResolved · 22 AUG 2026Upset
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds UnitedWon · Crowd had 41%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Leeds United won 0–1.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United: three calls on one match 629 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Yes
55%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Nottingham Forest vs…Surprise
there be three goals or…Crowd & market agreed
both sides find the netSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters629World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United: what is the result?
Nottingham52%
Leeds United ✓41%
Tie7%
OutcomeLeeds United
Voters629
ReadUpset
2Will there be three goals or more?
Under 2.5 ✓53%
Over 2.547%
OutcomeUnder 2.5
Voters629
ReadConsensus
3Do both sides find the net?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters629
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United: what is the result: NottinghamUpset
Mkt 42%Crowd 52%+10pp
Result: Leeds United · 0.62
: Deep
Will there be three goals or more: Under 2.5Consensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 53%+2pp
Result: Under 2.5 · 0.44
: Deep
Do both sides find the net: YesUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 67%+12pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United: what is the result0.62
Will there be three goals or more0.44
Do both sides find the net0.90
Average0.65
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters

A Nottingham Forest home win in an open, end-to-end game, both sides trading goals in a match that spills past three.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United: what is the result?Nottingham
Will there be three goals or more?Over 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Nottingham Forest grind out a narrow home victory, both sides scoring but the game staying tight and low on total goals.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United: what is the result?Nottingham
Will there be three goals or more?Under 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Leeds United take the points in a lively, high-tempo affair, both teams finding the net in a match that clears three goals.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United: what is the result?Leeds United
Will there be three goals or more?Over 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 629 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosNottingham Forest vs Leeds United: what is the result?Will there be three goals or more?Do both sides find the net?
122%136 voters
NottinghamGot it wrong
Over 2.5Got it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
215%93 voters
NottinghamGot it wrong
Under 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
314%90 voters
Leeds UnitedCalled it!
Over 2.5Got it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
412%75 voters
NottinghamGot it wrong
Under 2.5Called it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
512%74 voters
Leeds UnitedCalled it!
Under 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
69%58 voters
Leeds UnitedCalled it!
Under 2.5Called it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
75%34 voters
Leeds UnitedCalled it!
Over 2.5Got it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.9×
84%26 voters
NottinghamGot it wrong
Over 2.5Got it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
94%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
102%11 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5Called it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (629 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.13How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 358 · 9%
2 / 3194 · 31%
1 / 3235 · 37%
0 / 3142 · 23%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=629). Average 1.27 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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