All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Nottingham ForestCrowd had 14%0
ArsenalWon · Crowd had 79%1
The verdict

The crowd called it — Arsenal won 0–1.

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal 538 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Arsenal, and the crowd had it.

79%Crowd on Arsenal
60%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario39%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters538World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Arsenal ✓79%
Nottingham Forest14%
Tie8%
OutcomeArsenal
Voters538
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals62%
Under 2.5 goals ✓38%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters538
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes64%
No ✓36%
OutcomeNo
Voters538
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ArsenalConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 79%+19pp
Result: Arsenal · 0.07
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 50%Crowd 62%+12pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.77
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 50%Crowd 64%+14pp
Result: No · 0.82
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.07
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.77
Will both teams score0.82
Average0.55
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 39% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Arsenal winning an open, end-to-end contest with goals flying in at both ends, a lively and high-scoring away victory.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters · came true

A tight, controlled Arsenal win with the game staying locked up, one team keeping a clean sheet and the scoreline staying low and disciplined.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Arsenal winning in a game with plenty of goals but only one side finding the net, a one-sided attacking display with the other team shut out.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
67% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 538 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
139%210 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
215%80 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
313%72 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
412%62 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
55%28 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
64%22 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
73%18 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
82%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
92%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.0×
102%10 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (538 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 380 · 15%
2 / 3164 · 30%
1 / 3254 · 47%
0 / 340 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=538). Average 1.53 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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