All resolved pollsResolved · 10 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Deportivo Alavés1
Atlético Madrid2
The verdict

The crowd backed Atletico. Atlético Madrid won 1–2.

Alavés vs Atlético Madrid 537 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 26 points above the market's price on Atletico, and it went the other way.

79%Crowd on Atletico
53%Market price
+26Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario38%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters537World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Atletico ✓79%
Alaves11%
Tie9%
OutcomeAtletico
Voters537
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓60%
Under 2.5 goals40%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters537
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓64%
No36%
OutcomeYes
Voters537
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: AtleticoConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 79%+26pp
Result: Atletico · 0.06
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 60%+9pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.32
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 64%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.26
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.06
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.32
Will both teams score0.26
Average0.21
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 38% of voters · came true

A confident, open-game vision: Atletico win in a match with plenty of goals and both sides finding the net. The crowd's dominant shared picture by a clear margin.

Match resultAtletico
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A tight, controlled Atletico victory. Few goals, the opposition kept off the scoresheet, a disciplined defensive shutdown rather than a shootout.

Match resultAtletico
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Goals flow but only one way: Atletico win in a higher-scoring game where Alaves fail to register, a one-sided attacking display rather than a shared exchange.

Match resultAtletico
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
67% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 537 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
138%205 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
217%93 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
312%64 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
412%63 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
55%26 voters
AlavesGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
64%19 voters
AlavesGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
73%16 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.3×
83%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
93%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
102%11 voters
AlavesGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (537 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3205 · 38%
2 / 3167 · 31%
1 / 3138 · 26%
0 / 327 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=537). Average 2.02 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.