All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Upset
Carolina PanthersWon · Crowd had 17%32
Detroit LionsCrowd's pick · 83%26
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Carolina Panthers won 32–26.

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 32 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

83%Crowd on Yes
51%Market price
+32Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 3 surprises
winsSurprise
Detroit win by 4 or moreSurprise
there be more than 50.5…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Detroit Lions83%
Carolina Panthers ✓17%
OutcomeCarolina Panthers
Voters6
ReadUpset
2Will Detroit win by 4 or more?
Yes83%
No ✓17%
OutcomeNo
Voters6
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 50.5 points?
Over 50.5 ✓50%
Under 50.550%
OutcomeOver 50.5
Voters6
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Detroit67%
Carolina33%
Tie ✓0%
OutcomeTie
Voters6
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Detroit LionsUpset
Mkt 64%Crowd 83%+19pp
Result: Carolina Panthers · 1.38
: Deep
Will Detroit win by 4 or more: YesUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 83%+32pp
Result: No · 1.38
: Deep
Will there be more than 50.5 points: Over 50.5Consensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 50%-3pp
Result: Over 50.5 · 0.50
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: DetroitUpset
Mkt 61%Crowd 67%+6pp
Result: Tie · 1.56
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.38
Will Detroit win by 4 or more1.38
Will there be more than 50.5 points0.50
Who leads at half-time1.56
Average1.20
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

A high-scoring, back-and-forth game where Carolina seizes the first half but Detroit storms back to win comfortably, covering the spread in a shootout.

Who wins?Detroit Lions
Will Detroit win by 4 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 50.5 points?Over 50.5
Who leads at half-time?Carolina
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

Detroit controls from the opening drive, leads at the break, and grinds out a disciplined, margin-covering win in a lower-scoring, one-sided affair.

Who wins?Detroit Lions
Will Detroit win by 4 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 50.5 points?Under 50.5
Who leads at half-time?Detroit
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

Detroit leads early but Carolina claws back in a defensive, low-scoring contest, stealing the win without Detroit ever threatening a big margin.

Who wins?Carolina Panthers
Will Detroit win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 50.5 points?Under 50.5
Who leads at half-time?Detroit
83% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Detroit win by 4 or more?Will there be more than 50.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%2 voters
Detroit LionsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 50.5Called it!
CarolinaGot it wrong
2.9×
233%2 voters
Detroit LionsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 50.5Got it wrong
DetroitGot it wrong
1.4×
317%1 voter
Carolina PanthersCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 50.5Got it wrong
DetroitGot it wrong
17.2×
417%1 voter
Detroit LionsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 50.5Called it!
DetroitGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.48How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.9×The most-backed combination drew 2.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 41 · 17%
1 / 43 · 50%
0 / 42 · 33%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 0.83 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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