All resolved pollsResolved · 15 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Benfica4
CelticCrowd had 27%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Benfica won 4–1.

Benfica vs Celtic 558 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 17 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

66%Crowd on Yes
49%Market price
+17Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario29%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters558World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
SL Benfica ✓61%
Celtic27%
Tie12%
OutcomeSL Benfica
Voters558
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓57%
Under 2.5 goals43%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters558
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters558
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: SL BenficaConsensus
Mkt 77%Crowd 61%-16pp
Result: SL Benfica · 0.24
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 67%Crowd 57%-10pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.37
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 66%+17pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.24
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.37
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.28
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 29% of voters · came true

A high-scoring Benfica victory with both sides finding the net. The crowd's dominant vision, clustering tighter than chance alone would produce.

Match resultSL Benfica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Benfica grinding out a controlled, low-scoring win, shutting Celtic out and keeping the game tight. A compact, disciplined home victory with few goals.

Match resultSL Benfica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

An open, end-to-end contest with Celtic coming out on top and both teams contributing to a lively, goal-filled night in Lisbon.

Match resultCeltic
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
56% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 558 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
129%162 voters
SL BenficaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
214%78 voters
SL BenficaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
313%71 voters
CelticGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
411%64 voters
SL BenficaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
57%38 voters
SL BenficaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
66%31 voters
CelticGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
75%28 voters
CelticGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
84%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
94%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
103%19 voters
CelticGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (558 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3162 · 29%
2 / 3194 · 35%
1 / 3155 · 28%
0 / 347 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=558). Average 1.84 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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