All resolved pollsResolved · 9 AUG 2026Upset
Palmeiras vs Internacional: four calls on one match
Palmeiras 0–0 Internacional
The verdict

Palmeiras 0–0 Internacional

Palmeiras vs Internacional: four calls on one match 770 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 27 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

73%Crowd on Yes
46%Market price
+27Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
wins Palmeiras vs…Surprise
leads at half timeSurprise
the match have more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters770World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Palmeiras59%
Internacional37%
Tie3%
OutcomeTie
Voters770
ReadUpset
2Who leads at half time?
Palmeiras wins 1st Half51%
Internacional wins 1st Half25%
Tie 1st Half24%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters770
ReadUpset
3Will the match have more than 2.5 goals?
Yes65%
No35%
OutcomeNo
Voters770
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score?
Yes73%
No27%
OutcomeNo
Voters770
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins Palmeiras vs Internacional: PalmeirasUpset
Mkt 61%Crowd 59%-2pp
Result: Tie · 1.43
: Deep
Who leads at half time: Palmeiras wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 44%Crowd 51%+7pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.90
: Thin
Will the match have more than 2.5 goals: YesMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 65%+17pp
Result: No · 0.85
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 73%+27pp
Result: No · 1.07
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins Palmeiras vs Internacional1.43
Who leads at half time0.90
Will the match have more than 2.5 goals0.85
Will both teams score1.07
Average1.06
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters

A dominant Palmeiras performance: in front at the break, both sides finding the net in an open, high-scoring contest that vindicates the home side throughout.

Who wins Palmeiras vs Internacional?Palmeiras
Who leads at half time?Palmeiras wins 1st Half
Will the match have more than 2.5 goals?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 10% of voters

Internacional seize control early, lead at the interval, and the game opens up with goals at both ends in a lively, high-scoring away victory.

Who wins Palmeiras vs Internacional?Internacional
Who leads at half time?Internacional wins 1st Half
Will the match have more than 2.5 goals?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Palmeiras lead at the break and hold on for a tight win, both teams getting on the scoresheet but the game staying close and low on total goals.

Who wins Palmeiras vs Internacional?Palmeiras
Who leads at half time?Palmeiras wins 1st Half
Will the match have more than 2.5 goals?No
Will both teams score?Yes
41% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 770 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins Palmeiras vs Internacional?Who leads at half time?Will the match have more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
123%180 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
Palmeiras wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
210%75 voters
InternacionalGot it wrong
Internacional wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.2×
38%58 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
Palmeiras wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
46%46 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
Palmeiras wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.1×
56%46 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
66%44 voters
InternacionalGot it wrong
Palmeiras wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
74%32 voters
InternacionalGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
84%28 voters
InternacionalGot it wrong
Internacional wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
93%26 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.5×
103%24 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
Internacional wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (770 voters · top 10 of 34 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.25How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 45 · 1%
3 / 448 · 6%
2 / 4137 · 18%
1 / 4257 · 33%
0 / 4323 · 42%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=770). Average 0.9 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.