All resolved pollsResolved · 1 OCT 2026Upset
Cleveland BrownsWon · Crowd had 17%27
Pittsburgh SteelersCrowd's pick · 83%24
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Cleveland Browns won 27–24.

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 47 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Yes
53%Market price
+47Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
winsSurprise
Pittsburgh win by 3 or…Surprise
there be more than 37.5…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario67%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Pittsburgh Steelers83%
Cleveland Browns ✓17%
OutcomeCleveland Browns
Voters6
ReadUpset
2Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?
Yes100%
No ✓0%
OutcomeNo
Voters6
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 37.5 points?
Under 37.583%
Over 37.5 ✓17%
OutcomeOver 37.5
Voters6
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Pittsburgh SteelersUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 83%+25pp
Result: Cleveland Browns · 1.38
: Deep
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more: YesUpset
Mkt 53%Crowd 100%+47pp
Result: No · 2.00
: Deep
Will there be more than 37.5 points: Under 37.5Market
Mkt 48%Crowd 83%+35pp
Result: Over 37.5 · 1.38
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.38
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more2.00
Will there be more than 37.5 points1.38
Average1.59
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 67% of voters

A dominant Pittsburgh vision: Steelers win, cover the margin, and both defences keep the game a low-scoring grind.

Who wins?Pittsburgh Steelers
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 37.5 points?Under 37.5
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A contradictory but coherent fringe read: Browns steal the win yet Pittsburgh somehow covers, all in a tight defensive contest.

Who wins?Cleveland Browns
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 37.5 points?Under 37.5
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

Pittsburgh wins and covers, but the offences open up enough to push the total past the line.

Who wins?Pittsburgh Steelers
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 37.5 points?Over 37.5
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 37.5 points?
167%4 voters
Pittsburgh SteelersGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 37.5Got it wrong
1.0×
217%1 voter
Cleveland BrownsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Under 37.5Got it wrong
1.2×
317%1 voter
Pittsburgh SteelersGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 37.5Called it!
1.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.06How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-1. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 30 · 0%
2 / 30 · 0%
1 / 32 · 33%
0 / 34 · 67%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 0.33 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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