The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Croatia2
Ghana1
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
57%Crowd
47%Market
+10Divergence

+10 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd above market on Both Teams to Score, and that call aligned with the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap47%57% Yes+10
2Who wins this match?59%66% Croatia+7
3Who leads at half-time?41%47% Croatia+6
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?55%59% No+4
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedCroatia 2–1 Ghana — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.5kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Croatia66%
Ghana21%
Draw13%
OutcomeCroatia
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
Yes57%
No43%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.5k
ReadCrowd
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No59%
Yes41%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.5k
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Croatia47%
Draw31%
Ghana22%
OutcomeCroatia
Voters1.5k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: CroatiaConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 66%+7pp
Result: Croatia · 0.18
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 57%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.37
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 59%+4pp
Result: Yes · 0.70
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: CroatiaCrowd
Mkt 41%Crowd 47%+6pp
Result: Croatia · 0.43
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.18
Will both teams score0.37
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.70
Who leads at half-time0.43
Average0.42
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

A tight, controlled Croatia victory. Croatia in front at the break, the game staying low-scoring and only one side finding the net.

Who wins this match?Croatia
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Croatia
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters · came true

An open, high-scoring affair with Croatia in command. Both sides score, goals flow freely, and Croatia hold the lead at the interval.

Who wins this match?Croatia
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Croatia
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Croatia ahead at half-time in a competitive but contained match. Both teams get on the scoresheet, yet the game stays under three goals.

Who wins this match?Croatia
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Croatia
35% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.5k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?
114%215 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
CroatiaCalled it!
1.8×
213%193 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
CroatiaCalled it!
1.7×
38%126 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
CroatiaCalled it!
0.8×
47%114 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.4×
56%91 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
CroatiaCalled it!
1.1×
65%73 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.7×
74%61 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
2.9×
84%60 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.8×
94%58 voters
GhanaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
GhanaGot it wrong
3.5×
103%53 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
GhanaGot it wrong
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.5k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.26How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-13. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4193 · 13%
3 / 4369 · 24%
2 / 4502 · 33%
1 / 4348 · 23%
0 / 4122 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.5k). Average 2.11 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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