All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Upset
Buffalo BillsCrowd's pick · 50%26
New England PatriotsWon · Crowd had 50%29
The verdict

The crowd backed New England. New England Patriots won 26–29.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 37 points above the market's price on New England, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on New England
30%Market price
+37Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
winsSurprise
Buffalo win by 7 or moreSurprise
there be more than 48.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Buffalo Bills50%
New England Patriots ✓50%
OutcomeNew England Patriots
Voters6
ReadUpset
2Will Buffalo win by 7 or more?
Yes50%
No ✓50%
OutcomeNo
Voters6
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 48.5 points?
Under 48.567%
Over 48.5 ✓33%
OutcomeOver 48.5
Voters6
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
New England67%
Buffalo ✓33%
Tie0%
OutcomeBuffalo
Voters6
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Buffalo BillsUpset
Mkt 73%Crowd 50%-23pp
Result: New England Patriots · 0.50
: Deep
Will Buffalo win by 7 or more: YesUpset
Mkt 53%Crowd 50%-3pp
Result: No · 0.50
: Deep
Will there be more than 48.5 points: Under 48.5Upset
Mkt 51%Crowd 67%+16pp
Result: Over 48.5 · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New EnglandMarket
Mkt 30%Crowd 67%+37pp
Result: Buffalo · 0.90
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.50
Will Buffalo win by 7 or more0.50
Will there be more than 48.5 points0.90
Who leads at half-time0.90
Average0.70
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

A disciplined Bills win: Buffalo controls the half, pulls clear by a margin of seven or more, and both defences keep the scoring low in a tight, grinding contest.

Who wins?Buffalo Bills
Will Buffalo win by 7 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 48.5 points?Under 48.5
Who leads at half-time?Buffalo
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

A Patriots upset built on defensive grit: New England leads at the break, holds Buffalo to a narrow final margin, and the total stays well under the line.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Will Buffalo win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 48.5 points?Under 48.5
Who leads at half-time?New England
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

A high-scoring Bills victory where New England edges ahead at half-time before Buffalo storms back and pulls away by seven or more in an open, free-flowing game.

Who wins?Buffalo Bills
Will Buffalo win by 7 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 48.5 points?Over 48.5
Who leads at half-time?New England
83% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Buffalo win by 7 or more?Will there be more than 48.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%2 voters
Buffalo BillsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 48.5Got it wrong
BuffaloCalled it!
6.0×
233%2 voters
New England PatriotsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 48.5Got it wrong
New EnglandGot it wrong
3.0×
317%1 voter
Buffalo BillsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 48.5Called it!
New EnglandGot it wrong
3.0×
417%1 voter
New England PatriotsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 48.5Called it!
New EnglandGot it wrong
3.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.72How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call6.0×The most-backed combination drew 6.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-18. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 17%
2 / 42 · 33%
1 / 43 · 50%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 1.67 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.