All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Crowd beat the market
Los Angeles RamsCrowd had 25%16
Arizona CardinalsWon · Crowd had 75%18
The verdict

The crowd backed Arizona. Arizona Cardinals won 16–18.

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 81 points above the market's price on Arizona, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Arizona
19%Market price
+81Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd beat the market
Los Angeles win by 13…Crowd & market agreed
there be more than 52.5…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario50%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Arizona Cardinals ✓75%
Los Angeles Rams25%
OutcomeArizona Cardinals
Voters4
ReadCrowd
2Will Los Angeles win by 13 or more?
No ✓100%
Yes0%
OutcomeNo
Voters4
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 52.5 points?
Under 52.5 ✓75%
Over 52.525%
OutcomeUnder 52.5
Voters4
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Arizona100%
Los Angeles R0%
Tie ✓0%
OutcomeTie
Voters4
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Arizona CardinalsCrowd
Mkt 13%Crowd 75%+62pp
Result: Arizona Cardinals · 0.13
: Deep
Will Los Angeles win by 13 or more: NoConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 100%+49pp
Result: No · 0.00
: Deep
Will there be more than 52.5 points: Under 52.5Consensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 75%+21pp
Result: Under 52.5 · 0.13
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: ArizonaUpset
Mkt 19%Crowd 100%+81pp
Result: Tie · 2.00
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.13
Will Los Angeles win by 13 or more0.00
Will there be more than 52.5 points0.13
Who leads at half-time2.00
Average0.56
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 50% of voters

A controlled Arizona upset: Cardinals win without a blowout, scoring stays low, and Arizona sets the tone by leading at the break.

Who wins?Arizona Cardinals
Will Los Angeles win by 13 or more?No
Will there be more than 52.5 points?Under 52.5
Who leads at half-time?Arizona
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A high-scoring Arizona victory: Cardinals take the win and the halftime lead in a game that produces plenty of points despite no Rams blowout.

Who wins?Arizona Cardinals
Will Los Angeles win by 13 or more?No
Will there be more than 52.5 points?Over 52.5
Who leads at half-time?Arizona
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A split-half story: Arizona leads at the break but the Rams grind back to win a tight, low-scoring contest without ever pulling clear.

Who wins?Los Angeles Rams
Will Los Angeles win by 13 or more?No
Will there be more than 52.5 points?Under 52.5
Who leads at half-time?Arizona
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Los Angeles win by 13 or more?Will there be more than 52.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
150%2 voters
Arizona CardinalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 52.5Called it!
ArizonaGot it wrong
0.9×
225%1 voter
Arizona CardinalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 52.5Got it wrong
ArizonaGot it wrong
1.3×
325%1 voter
Los Angeles RamsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 52.5Called it!
ArizonaGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.13How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call0.9×The most-backed combination drew 0.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 42 · 50%
2 / 42 · 50%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 2.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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