All resolved pollsResolved · 29 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
ScotlandCrowd had 31%0
SwitzerlandWon · Crowd had 51%3
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Switzerland won 0–3.

Scotland vs Switzerland 620 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

68%Crowd on Yes
54%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters620World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Switzerland ✓51%
Scotland31%
Tie18%
OutcomeSwitzerland
Voters620
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals55%
Over 2.5 goals ✓45%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters620
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes68%
No ✓32%
OutcomeNo
Voters620
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: SwitzerlandConsensus
Mkt 49%Crowd 51%+2pp
Result: Switzerland · 0.37
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 55%+3pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.61
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 68%+14pp
Result: No · 0.92
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.37
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.61
Will both teams score0.92
Average0.63
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters

A free-scoring Swiss win with goals at both ends. The crowd's most vivid shared vision, drawing believers well beyond what their individual answers alone would suggest.

Match resultSwitzerland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Switzerland grinding out a tight, controlled win, keeping Scotland scoreless and the game locked under the goals line. A disciplined, low-drama Swiss victory.

Match resultSwitzerland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Switzerland edging a close, scrappy affair with both sides nicking a goal but the match staying cagey and under the total. A narrow, attritional Swiss win.

Match resultSwitzerland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
47% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 620 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
121%132 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
214%84 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
312%76 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
412%75 voters
ScotlandGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
510%59 voters
ScotlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
69%54 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
76%38 voters
ScotlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.1×
84%27 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
94%26 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.6×
104%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (620 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 326 · 4%
2 / 3242 · 39%
1 / 3239 · 39%
0 / 3113 · 18%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=620). Average 1.29 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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