VoxPop top scenarios
36% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Czech Republic1
South Africa1
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
66%Crowd
49%Market
+17Divergence
+17 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will both teams score.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap49%66% Yes+17
2Who leads at half-time?39%44% Czech Republic+5
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?47%50% Yes+3
4Who wins?56%57% Czech Republic+1
UpsetCzechia 1–1 South Africa — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeCzech Republic
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.17
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.50
Will both teams score0.23
Who leads at half-time0.47
Average0.59
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
116%191 voters
Czech RepublicGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Czech RepublicCalled it!
1.9×
211%136 voters
South AfricaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
South AfricaGot it wrong
3.6×
39%108 voters
Czech RepublicGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Czech RepublicCalled it!
1.1×
48%102 voters
Czech RepublicGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Czech RepublicCalled it!
2.0×
55%65 voters
South AfricaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
South AfricaGot it wrong
1.7×
65%58 voters
Czech RepublicGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Czech RepublicCalled it!
1.1×
74%44 voters
Czech RepublicGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.8×
83%42 voters
Czech RepublicGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
South AfricaGot it wrong
0.6×
93%42 voters
South AfricaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
South AfricaGot it wrong
2.1×
103%42 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
6.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.32How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-12. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 1.73 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching