The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Czech Republic0
Mexico3
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
58%Crowd
32%Market
+26Divergence

+26 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on Mexico leading at half-time, a read that did not align with the actual draw at the break.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap32%58% Mexico+26
2Who wins this match?46%66% Mexico+20
3Will both teams score?48%68% Yes+20
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?43%54% Yes+11
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedCzechia 0–3 Mexico — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters980World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Mexico66%
Czech Republic22%
Draw12%
OutcomeMexico
Voters980
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes54%
No46%
OutcomeYes
Voters980
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes68%
No32%
OutcomeNo
Voters980
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Mexico58%
Czech Republic21%
Draw21%
OutcomeDraw
Voters980
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: MexicoConsensus
Mkt 46%Crowd 66%+20pp
Result: Mexico · 0.18
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesCrowd
Mkt 43%Crowd 54%+11pp
Result: Yes · 0.42
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 68%+20pp
Result: No · 0.92
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: MexicoMarket
Mkt 32%Crowd 58%+26pp
Result: Draw · 1.00
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.18
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.42
Will both teams score0.92
Who leads at half-time1.00
Average0.63
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A free-scoring Mexico dominant from the off, both sides finding the net in an open, end-to-end contest with Mexico firmly in front at the break.

Who wins this match?Mexico
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Mexico
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

Mexico grinding out a tight, controlled win, keeping a clean sheet and shutting the game down with a lead already established by half-time.

Who wins this match?Mexico
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Mexico
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

A close, low-scoring affair with both sides on the scoresheet, yet Mexico edging ahead before the interval and holding on for the win.

Who wins this match?Mexico
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Mexico
46% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 980 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
125%245 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
MexicoGot it wrong
1.8×
211%109 voters
MexicoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
MexicoGot it wrong
2.0×
39%92 voters
MexicoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
MexicoGot it wrong
0.8×
47%67 voters
Czech RepublicGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Czech RepublicGot it wrong
4.0×
56%58 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
MexicoGot it wrong
0.9×
64%35 voters
Czech RepublicGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Czech RepublicGot it wrong
2.5×
73%33 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.7×
83%32 voters
Czech RepublicGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Czech RepublicGot it wrong
4.8×
93%32 voters
MexicoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.8×
103%31 voters
MexicoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
1.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (980 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.32How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 45 · 1%
3 / 4134 · 14%
2 / 4494 · 50%
1 / 4281 · 29%
0 / 466 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=980). Average 1.73 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching