All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
New England PatriotsWon · Crowd had 67%20
Pittsburgh SteelersCrowd had 33%3
The verdict

The crowd backed New England Patriots -5.5. New England Patriots won 20–3.

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers 556 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 11 points above the market's price on New England Patriots -5.5, and it went the other way.

60%Crowd on New England Patriots -5.5
49%Market price
+11Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd & market agreed
New England win by 6 or…Crowd beat the market
there be more than 41.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters556World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New England Patriots ✓67%
Pittsburgh Steelers33%
OutcomeNew England Patriots
Voters556
ReadConsensus
2Will New England win by 6 or more?
New England Patriots -5.5 ✓60%
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.540%
OutcomeNew England Patriots -5.5
Voters556
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 41.5 points?
Over 41.557%
Under 41.5 ✓43%
OutcomeUnder 41.5
Voters556
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
New England Patriots ✓53%
Pittsburgh Steelers31%
Tie16%
OutcomeNew England Patriots
Voters556
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New England PatriotsConsensus
Mkt 69%Crowd 67%-2pp
Result: New England Patriots · 0.22
: Deep
Will New England win by 6 or more: New England Patriots -5.5Crowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 60%+11pp
Result: New England Patriots -5.5 · 0.32
: Deep
Will there be more than 41.5 points: Over 41.5Upset
Mkt 50%Crowd 57%+7pp
Result: Under 41.5 · 0.65
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New England PatriotsConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 53%-3pp
Result: New England Patriots · 0.34
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.22
Will New England win by 6 or more0.32
Will there be more than 41.5 points0.65
Who leads at half-time0.34
Average0.38
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

A dominant Patriots performance: New England controls from the first whistle, leads at the break, wins comfortably by six or more, and both offences combine to push the total past

Who wins?New England Patriots
Will New England win by 6 or more?New England Patriots -5.5
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Over 41.5
Who leads at half-time?New England Patriots
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters · came true

A grinding Patriots victory: New England leads at half-time and pulls clear to cover the spread, but defences hold firm and the scoring stays below 41.5 points combined.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Will New England win by 6 or more?New England Patriots -5.5
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Under 41.5
Who leads at half-time?New England Patriots
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A Steelers upset: Pittsburgh leads at the break and holds on to win outright in an open, high-scoring game that clears the total with room to spare.

Who wins?Pittsburgh Steelers
Will New England win by 6 or more?Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Over 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Pittsburgh Steelers
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 556 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will New England win by 6 or more?Will there be more than 41.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
120%112 voters
New England PatriotsCalled it!
New England Patriots -5.5Called it!
Over 41.5Got it wrong
New England PatriotsCalled it!
1.7×
214%79 voters
New England PatriotsCalled it!
New England Patriots -5.5Called it!
Under 41.5Called it!
New England PatriotsCalled it!
1.6×
38%44 voters
Pittsburgh SteelersGot it wrong
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5Got it wrong
Over 41.5Got it wrong
Pittsburgh SteelersGot it wrong
3.4×
45%27 voters
New England PatriotsCalled it!
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5Got it wrong
Over 41.5Got it wrong
New England PatriotsCalled it!
0.6×
55%26 voters
New England PatriotsCalled it!
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5Got it wrong
Under 41.5Called it!
New England PatriotsCalled it!
0.8×
64%24 voters
Pittsburgh SteelersGot it wrong
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5Got it wrong
Under 41.5Called it!
Pittsburgh SteelersGot it wrong
2.5×
74%22 voters
New England PatriotsCalled it!
New England Patriots -5.5Called it!
Over 41.5Got it wrong
Pittsburgh SteelersGot it wrong
0.6×
84%21 voters
New England PatriotsCalled it!
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5Got it wrong
Over 41.5Got it wrong
Pittsburgh SteelersGot it wrong
0.8×
93%18 voters
New England PatriotsCalled it!
New England Patriots -5.5Called it!
Over 41.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
0.9×
103%17 voters
New England PatriotsCalled it!
New England Patriots -5.5Called it!
Under 41.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
1.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (556 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.23How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 479 · 14%
3 / 4183 · 33%
2 / 4139 · 25%
1 / 499 · 18%
0 / 456 · 10%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=556). Average 2.23 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.