All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Vélez Sarsfield
San Lorenzo de Almagro
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
41%Crowd
48%Market
-7Divergence

-7 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd underweights Vélez and overweights San Lorenzo relative to the market price.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap48%41% CA Vélez Sarsfield-7
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario41%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters521World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
CA Vélez Sarsfield41%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro37%
Tie22%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters521
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: CA Vélez Sarsfield
Mkt 48%Crowd 41%-7pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 41% of voters

The crowd's most-backed vision: Vélez take the match, though the crowd holds this view with less conviction than the market implies.

Match resultCA Vélez Sarsfield
Scenario 2 · 37% of voters

A strong minority of the crowd sees San Lorenzo claiming the result, a scenario the crowd backs far more heavily than the market price suggests.

Match resultCA San Lorenzo de Almagro
Scenario 3 · 22% of voters

Roughly one in five voters picture the sides level at the final whistle, a share the crowd holds well below what the market has priced in.

Match resultTie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 521 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch result
141%214 voters
CA Vélez SarsfieldPending
1.0×
237%193 voters
CA San Lorenzo de AlmagroPending
1.0×
322%114 voters
TiePending
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (521 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.00How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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