All resolved pollsResolved · 3 AUG 2026Market beat the crowd
Vélez Sarsfield vs Independiente
Vélez Sarsfield 1–0 Independiente
The verdict

Vélez Sarsfield 1–0 Independiente

Vélez Sarsfield vs Independiente 958 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 33 points above the market's price on Independiente Avellaneda, and it went the other way.

59%Crowd on Independiente Avellaneda
26%Market price
+33Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called
wins this matchMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters958World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Independiente Avellaneda59%
Velez Sarsfield ✓30%
Tie11%
OutcomeVelez Sarsfield
Voters958
ReadMarket
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes56%
No ✓44%
OutcomeNo
Voters958
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes68%
No ✓32%
OutcomeNo
Voters958
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Independiente AvellanedaMarket
Mkt 26%Crowd 59%+33pp
Result: Velez Sarsfield · 0.85
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 37%Crowd 56%+19pp
Result: No · 0.63
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 68%+21pp
Result: No · 0.92
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.85
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.63
Will both teams score in regulation time0.92
Average0.80
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Independiente take the win in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Who wins this match?Independiente Avellaneda
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A minority picture of a high-scoring Vélez victory, with both teams contributing goals in a lively, attacking match.

Who wins this match?Velez Sarsfield
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Independiente win a tighter affair, both teams score but the game stays close and goals are kept to a minimum.

Who wins this match?Independiente Avellaneda
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
52% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 958 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
125%244 voters
Independiente AvellanedaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
214%131 voters
Velez SarsfieldCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
313%121 voters
Independiente AvellanedaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
412%111 voters
Independiente AvellanedaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
59%86 voters
Independiente AvellanedaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
68%80 voters
Velez SarsfieldCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
75%50 voters
Velez SarsfieldCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.2×
84%36 voters
TieGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
94%35 voters
TieGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
103%27 voters
Velez SarsfieldCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (958 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.11How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 350 · 5%
2 / 3242 · 25%
1 / 3386 · 40%
0 / 3280 · 29%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=958). Average 1.06 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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