All resolved pollsResolved · 23 AUG 2026Upset
Newcastle United2
LiverpoolCrowd had 79%2
The verdict

Newcastle United 2–2 Liverpool

Newcastle vs Liverpool: three calls on one match 652 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 28 points above the market's price on Liverpool, and it went the other way.

79%Crowd on Liverpool
51%Market price
+28Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Newcastle vs Liverpool:…Surprise
there be three goals or…Crowd & market agreed
both sides find the netCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario39%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters652World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Newcastle vs Liverpool: what is the result?
Liverpool79%
Newcastle14%
Tie7%
OutcomeTie
Voters652
ReadUpset
2Will there be three goals or more?
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
OutcomeOver 2.5
Voters652
ReadConsensus
3Do both sides find the net?
Yes69%
No31%
OutcomeYes
Voters652
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Newcastle vs Liverpool: what is the result: LiverpoolUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 79%+28pp
Result: Tie · 1.51
: Deep
Will there be three goals or more: Over 2.5Consensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 60%-5pp
Result: Over 2.5 · 0.32
: Deep
Do both sides find the net: YesConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 69%+3pp
Result: Yes · 0.19
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Newcastle vs Liverpool: what is the result1.51
Will there be three goals or more0.32
Do both sides find the net0.19
Average0.67
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 39% of voters

A Liverpool win in an open, end-to-end game where both sides contribute to a lively goal tally. The crowd's dominant shared vision, clustering well above statistical expectation.

Newcastle vs Liverpool: what is the result?Liverpool
Will there be three goals or more?Over 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Liverpool edging a tight, low-scoring contest where Newcastle still find the net. A controlled win with just enough goals for both teams to register.

Newcastle vs Liverpool: what is the result?Liverpool
Will there be three goals or more?Under 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Liverpool shutting Newcastle out entirely in a compact, disciplined match. A clean win with the scoring kept to a minimum and only one side finding the net.

Newcastle vs Liverpool: what is the result?Liverpool
Will there be three goals or more?Under 2.5
Do both sides find the net?No
67% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 652 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosNewcastle vs Liverpool: what is the result?Will there be three goals or more?Do both sides find the net?
139%253 voters
LiverpoolGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
215%96 voters
LiverpoolGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
314%90 voters
LiverpoolGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
411%74 voters
LiverpoolGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
55%34 voters
NewcastleGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
64%27 voters
NewcastleGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
74%25 voters
NewcastleGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.2×
83%20 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.6×
93%19 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5Called it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
101%7 voters
NewcastleGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
NoGot it wrong
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (652 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 319 · 3%
2 / 3308 · 47%
1 / 3210 · 32%
0 / 3115 · 18%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=652). Average 1.35 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.