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Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
50%Crowd
54%Market
-4Divergence

-4 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd hammers Tie at halftime far above market, while Kansas City halftime lead sits below the book.

8m 47sof alpha left before kick-off
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap54%50% Kansas City-4
2Who wins?48%50% Denver Broncos+2
3Will Kansas City win by 2 or more?49%50% Yes+1
4Will there be more than 40.5 points?50%50% Over 40.50
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Denver Broncos50%
Kansas City Chiefs50%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
2Will Kansas City win by 2 or more?
Yes50%
No50%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
3Will there be more than 40.5 points?
Over 40.550%
Under 40.550%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
4Who leads at half-time?
Kansas City50%
Denver25%
Tie25%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Denver Broncos
Mkt 48%Crowd 50%+2pp
: Thin
Will Kansas City win by 2 or more: Yes
Mkt 49%Crowd 50%+1pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 40.5 points: Over 40.5
Mkt 50%Crowd 50%0pp
: Thin
Who leads at half-time: Kansas City
Mkt 54%Crowd 50%-4pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A low-scoring Broncos upset, Denver controlling the line of scrimmage and leading at the break without Kansas City ever threatening a comfortable margin.

Who wins?Denver Broncos
Will Kansas City win by 2 or more?No
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Under 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Denver
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A high-tempo shootout where Kansas City leads at half but Denver storms back to claim the win, points flying in both directions across all four quarters.

Who wins?Denver Broncos
Will Kansas City win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Kansas City
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A grinding, defence-first contest locked level at the break, Kansas City eventually edging it without ever pulling clear by a comfortable two-score cushion.

Who wins?Kansas City Chiefs
Will Kansas City win by 2 or more?No
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Under 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Kansas City win by 2 or more?Will there be more than 40.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Denver BroncosPending
NoPending
Under 40.5Pending
DenverPending
8.0×
225%1 voter
Denver BroncosPending
YesPending
Over 40.5Pending
Kansas CityPending
4.0×
325%1 voter
Kansas City ChiefsPending
NoPending
Under 40.5Pending
TiePending
8.0×
425%1 voter
Kansas City ChiefsPending
YesPending
Over 40.5Pending
Kansas CityPending
4.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.81How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call8.0×The most-backed combination drew 8.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-32. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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