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Venezia
Fiorentina
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
64%Crowd
42%Market
+22Divergence

+22 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits far above the market on Fiorentina, the widest gap in the poll.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap42%64% Fiorentina+22
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?47%55% Under 2.5 goals+8
3Will both teams score?58%61% Yes+3
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters631World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Fiorentina64%
Venezia23%
Tie13%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters631
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals55%
Over 2.5 goals45%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters631
3Will both teams score?
Yes61%
No39%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters631
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Fiorentina
Mkt 42%Crowd 64%+22pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goals
Mkt 47%Crowd 55%+8pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 58%Crowd 61%+3pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters

A Fiorentina victory in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultFiorentina
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

Fiorentina grind out a controlled, low-scoring win, keeping Venezia off the scoresheet in a tight, disciplined affair.

Match resultFiorentina
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 16% of voters

Fiorentina win a close, cagey match where both teams score but the goals are few and the margin stays narrow.

Match resultFiorentina
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
57% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 631 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
123%145 voters
FiorentinaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
218%112 voters
FiorentinaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.3×
316%103 voters
FiorentinaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.8×
48%52 voters
VeneziaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
57%45 voters
FiorentinaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.6×
66%38 voters
VeneziaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.8×
76%35 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
85%31 voters
VeneziaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.0×
94%25 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.4×
103%21 voters
VeneziaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (631 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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