All resolved pollsResolved · 11 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
VeneziaCrowd had 23%2
FiorentinaWon · Crowd had 64%4
The verdict

The crowd called it — Fiorentina won 2–4.

Venezia vs Fiorentina 631 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 22 points above the market's price on Fiorentina, and the crowd had it.

64%Crowd on Fiorentina
42%Market price
+22Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters631World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Fiorentina ✓64%
Venezia23%
Tie13%
OutcomeFiorentina
Voters631
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals55%
Over 2.5 goals ✓45%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters631
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓61%
No39%
OutcomeYes
Voters631
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FiorentinaConsensus
Mkt 42%Crowd 64%+22pp
Result: Fiorentina · 0.20
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 55%+8pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.61
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 61%+3pp
Result: Yes · 0.30
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.20
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.61
Will both teams score0.30
Average0.37
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters · came true

A free-scoring Fiorentina victory with both sides finding the net and the goals flowing freely throughout.

Match resultFiorentina
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

Fiorentina grind out a tight, controlled win, keeping the scoreline low and shutting Venezia out entirely.

Match resultFiorentina
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 16% of voters

Fiorentina win a close, compact contest where both teams score but the match stays under a three-goal total.

Match resultFiorentina
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
57% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 631 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
123%145 voters
FiorentinaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
218%112 voters
FiorentinaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
316%103 voters
FiorentinaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
48%52 voters
VeneziaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
57%45 voters
FiorentinaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
66%38 voters
VeneziaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
76%35 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
85%31 voters
VeneziaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
94%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
103%21 voters
VeneziaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (631 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3145 · 23%
2 / 3215 · 34%
1 / 3215 · 34%
0 / 356 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=631). Average 1.71 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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