All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Upset
Los Angeles ChargersCrowd's pick · 66%14
Arizona CardinalsWon · Crowd had 34%26
The verdict

The crowd backed Los Angeles Chargers. Arizona Cardinals won 14–26.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Arizona Cardinals 554 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 17 points below the market's price on Los Angeles Chargers, and it went the other way.

53%Crowd on Los Angeles Chargers
70%Market price
-17Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
winsSurprise
Against the spread, who…Market beat the crowd
total points are scoredMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters554World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Los Angeles Chargers66%
Arizona Cardinals ✓34%
OutcomeArizona Cardinals
Voters554
ReadUpset
2Against the spread, who covers?
Los Angeles Chargers -9.558%
Arizona Cardinals +9.5 ✓42%
OutcomeArizona Cardinals +9.5
Voters554
ReadMarket
3How many total points are scored?
Over 47.554%
Under 47.5 ✓46%
OutcomeUnder 47.5
Voters554
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Los Angeles Chargers53%
Arizona Cardinals ✓31%
Tie16%
OutcomeArizona Cardinals
Voters554
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Los Angeles ChargersUpset
Mkt 81%Crowd 66%-15pp
Result: Arizona Cardinals · 0.87
: Deep
Against the spread, who covers: Los Angeles Chargers -9.5Market
Mkt 50%Crowd 58%+8pp
Result: Arizona Cardinals +9.5 · 0.67
: Deep
How many total points are scored: Over 47.5Market
Mkt 49%Crowd 54%+5pp
Result: Under 47.5 · 0.58
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Los Angeles ChargersUpset
Mkt 70%Crowd 53%-17pp
Result: Arizona Cardinals · 0.78
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.87
Against the spread, who covers0.67
How many total points are scored0.58
Who leads at half-time0.78
Average0.73
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Chargers in control from the first half, pulling clear by double digits in a high-scoring, free-flowing contest that blows past the total.

Who wins?Los Angeles Chargers
Against the spread, who covers?Los Angeles Chargers -9.5
How many total points are scored?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Los Angeles Chargers
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tighter, more defensive Chargers win: Los Angeles leads at the break and grinds out a covering margin in a game that stays below the total.

Who wins?Los Angeles Chargers
Against the spread, who covers?Los Angeles Chargers -9.5
How many total points are scored?Under 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Los Angeles Chargers
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

The upset cluster: Arizona seizes the half-time lead, keeps pace in a high-scoring game, and covers comfortably as the Chargers fail to pull away.

Who wins?Arizona Cardinals
Against the spread, who covers?Arizona Cardinals +9.5
How many total points are scored?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Arizona Cardinals
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 554 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Against the spread, who covers?How many total points are scored?Who leads at half-time?
122%120 voters
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
Los Angeles Chargers -9.5Got it wrong
Over 47.5Got it wrong
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
2.0×
214%78 voters
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
Los Angeles Chargers -9.5Got it wrong
Under 47.5Called it!
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
1.5×
39%49 voters
Arizona CardinalsCalled it!
Arizona Cardinals +9.5Called it!
Over 47.5Got it wrong
Arizona CardinalsCalled it!
3.7×
46%33 voters
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
Arizona Cardinals +9.5Called it!
Over 47.5Got it wrong
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
0.8×
55%30 voters
Arizona CardinalsCalled it!
Arizona Cardinals +9.5Called it!
Under 47.5Called it!
Arizona CardinalsCalled it!
2.7×
64%24 voters
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
Arizona Cardinals +9.5Called it!
Under 47.5Called it!
Arizona CardinalsCalled it!
1.1×
74%20 voters
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
Los Angeles Chargers -9.5Got it wrong
Under 47.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
1.3×
83%18 voters
Arizona CardinalsCalled it!
Los Angeles Chargers -9.5Got it wrong
Over 47.5Got it wrong
Arizona CardinalsCalled it!
1.0×
93%17 voters
Arizona CardinalsCalled it!
Arizona Cardinals +9.5Called it!
Under 47.5Called it!
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
0.9×
103%17 voters
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
Arizona Cardinals +9.5Called it!
Over 47.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (554 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.29How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.0×The most-backed combination drew 2.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 430 · 5%
3 / 4115 · 21%
2 / 4106 · 19%
1 / 4170 · 31%
0 / 4133 · 24%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=554). Average 1.53 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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