All resolved pollsResolved · 18 JUN 2026Crowd & market agreed
MexicoWon · Crowd had 50%1
South KoreaCrowd had 35%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Mexico won 1–0.

Mexico vs. South Korea 1.2k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 32 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

78%Crowd on Yes
46%Market price
+32Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Mexico50%
South Korea35%
Draw15%
OutcomeMexico
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes63%
No37%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes78%
No22%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Mexico48%
South Korea30%
Draw22%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: MexicoConsensus
Mkt 48%Crowd 50%+2pp
Result: Mexico · 0.40
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 63%+24pp
Result: No · 0.79
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 78%+32pp
Result: No · 1.22
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: MexicoMarket
Mkt 35%Crowd 48%+13pp
Result: Draw · 0.93
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.40
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.79
Will both teams score1.22
Who leads at half-time0.93
Average0.83
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters

A confident, attack-heavy vision: Mexico in control from the off, both sides finding the net in a free-scoring contest that Mexico ultimately wins.

Who wins?Mexico
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Mexico
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

An upset built on tempo: South Korea seize the lead early, both teams trade goals in an open game, and the Koreans hold on to claim the win.

Who wins?South Korea
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?South Korea
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A tight but decisive Mexico win: both teams get on the scoresheet yet the game stays close in total goals, with Mexico ahead at the break and at the final whistle.

Who wins?Mexico
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Mexico
44% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
122%264 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
MexicoGot it wrong
1.9×
214%162 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
South KoreaGot it wrong
2.6×
38%100 voters
MexicoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
MexicoGot it wrong
1.2×
45%62 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
South KoreaGot it wrong
1.7×
54%47 voters
MexicoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
MexicoGot it wrong
2.0×
64%46 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.7×
74%46 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
1.0×
84%43 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
MexicoGot it wrong
1.1×
93%40 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
MexicoGot it wrong
0.4×
103%38 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
South KoreaGot it wrong
3.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.33How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 420 · 2%
3 / 4115 · 10%
2 / 4321 · 27%
1 / 4501 · 42%
0 / 4238 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 1.31 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.