The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Mexico1
South Korea0
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
78%Crowd
46%Market
+32Divergence

+32 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on both teams scoring, a gap that the final result closed against the crowd's read.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap46%78% Yes+32
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?39%63% Yes+24
3Who leads at half-time?35%48% Mexico+13
4Who wins?48%50% Mexico+2
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedMexico 1–0 South Korea — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Mexico50%
South Korea35%
Draw15%
OutcomeMexico
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes63%
No37%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes78%
No22%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Mexico48%
South Korea30%
Draw22%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: MexicoConsensus
Mkt 48%Crowd 50%+2pp
Result: Mexico · 0.40
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 63%+24pp
Result: No · 0.79
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 78%+32pp
Result: No · 1.22
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: MexicoMarket
Mkt 35%Crowd 48%+13pp
Result: Draw · 0.93
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.40
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.79
Will both teams score1.22
Who leads at half-time0.93
Average0.83
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters

A confident, attack-heavy vision: Mexico in control from the off, both sides finding the net in a free-scoring contest that Mexico ultimately wins.

Who wins?Mexico
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Mexico
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

An upset built on tempo: South Korea seize the lead early, both teams trade goals in an open game, and the Koreans hold on to claim the win.

Who wins?South Korea
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?South Korea
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A tight but decisive Mexico win: both teams get on the scoresheet yet the game stays close in total goals, with Mexico ahead at the break and at the final whistle.

Who wins?Mexico
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Mexico
44% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
122%264 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
MexicoGot it wrong
1.9×
214%162 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
South KoreaGot it wrong
2.6×
38%100 voters
MexicoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
MexicoGot it wrong
1.2×
45%62 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
South KoreaGot it wrong
1.7×
54%47 voters
MexicoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
MexicoGot it wrong
2.0×
64%46 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.7×
74%46 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
1.0×
84%43 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
MexicoGot it wrong
1.1×
93%40 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
MexicoGot it wrong
0.4×
103%38 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
South KoreaGot it wrong
3.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.33How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 420 · 2%
3 / 4115 · 10%
2 / 4321 · 27%
1 / 4501 · 42%
0 / 4238 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 1.31 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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