VoxPop top scenarios
82% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Brazil3
Haiti0
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
89%Crowd
69%Market
+20Divergence
+20 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Brazil on who leads at half-time.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap69%89% Brazil+20
2Will both teams score?39%55% Yes+16
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?70%84% Yes+14
4Who wins?88%94% Brazil+6
Crowd & market agreedBrazil 3–0 Haiti — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario42%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeBrazil
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeBrazil
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.01
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.05
Will both teams score0.61
Who leads at half-time0.02
Average0.17
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
142%565 voters
BrazilCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
BrazilCalled it!
1.1×
233%442 voters
BrazilCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
BrazilCalled it!
1.0×
37%90 voters
BrazilCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
BrazilCalled it!
1.1×
45%70 voters
BrazilCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
BrazilCalled it!
0.7×
52%27 voters
BrazilCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.8×
61%19 voters
BrazilCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
HaitiGot it wrong
0.7×
71%16 voters
BrazilCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.6×
81%11 voters
HaitiGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
HaitiGot it wrong
11.8×
91%10 voters
BrazilCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
HaitiGot it wrong
0.4×
101%9 voters
BrazilCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
HaitiGot it wrong
1.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 34 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.10How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 3.11 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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