All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
San Francisco 49ersWon · Crowd had 100%36
Arizona CardinalsCrowd had 0%30
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 47.5. San Francisco 49ers won 36–30.

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 48 points above the market's price on Over 47.5, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Over 47.5
52%Market price
+48Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
San Francisco win by 9…Market beat the crowd
there be more than 47.5…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario67%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
San Francisco 49ers ✓100%
Arizona Cardinals0%
OutcomeSan Francisco 49ers
Voters3
ReadConsensus
2Will San Francisco win by 9 or more?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters3
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 47.5 points?
Over 47.5 ✓100%
Under 47.50%
OutcomeOver 47.5
Voters3
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
San Francisco wins 1st Half ✓67%
Arizona wins 1st Half33%
Tie 1st Half0%
OutcomeSan Francisco wins 1st Half
Voters3
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: San Francisco 49ersConsensus
Mkt 79%Crowd 100%+21pp
Result: San Francisco 49ers · 0.00
: Deep
Will San Francisco win by 9 or more: YesMarket
Mkt 50%Crowd 67%+17pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
Will there be more than 47.5 points: Over 47.5Consensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 100%+48pp
Result: Over 47.5 · 0.00
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: San Francisco wins 1st HalfConsensus
Mkt 69%Crowd 67%-2pp
Result: San Francisco wins 1st Half · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.00
Will San Francisco win by 9 or more0.90
Will there be more than 47.5 points0.00
Who leads at half-time0.22
Average0.28
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 67% of voters

A dominant 49ers performance from the first whistle, controlling the half and pulling clear by nine or more in a high-scoring, free-flowing contest.

Who wins?San Francisco 49ers
Will San Francisco win by 9 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?San Francisco wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

Arizona seizes the first half, but San Francisco ultimately prevails in a back-and-forth, points-heavy game that stays tight enough to deny a big final margin.

Who wins?San Francisco 49ers
Will San Francisco win by 9 or more?No
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Arizona wins 1st Half
100% of voters backed the top 2 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will San Francisco win by 9 or more?Will there be more than 47.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
167%2 voters
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 47.5Called it!
San Francisco wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.5×
233%1 voter
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 47.5Called it!
Arizona wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
3.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 2 of 2 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.44How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 43 · 100%
2 / 40 · 0%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 3 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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