All resolved pollsResolved · 8 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
PalmeirasWon · Crowd had 75%1
BahiaCrowd had 16%0
The verdict

The crowd called it — Palmeiras won 1–0.

Palmeiras vs Bahia 553 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Palmeiras, and the crowd had it.

75%Crowd on Palmeiras
62%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters553World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Palmeiras ✓75%
Bahia16%
Tie9%
OutcomePalmeiras
Voters553
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals55%
Under 2.5 goals ✓45%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters553
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes66%
No ✓34%
OutcomeNo
Voters553
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: PalmeirasConsensus
Mkt 62%Crowd 75%+13pp
Result: Palmeiras · 0.10
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 55%-3pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.61
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 66%+11pp
Result: No · 0.87
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.10
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.61
Will both teams score0.87
Average0.52
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 34% of voters

A Palmeiras victory in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely across the ninety minutes.

Match resultPalmeiras
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

Palmeiras grind out a narrow win in a tight, low-scoring affair, but Bahia still manage a consolation goal in a cagey encounter.

Match resultPalmeiras
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters · came true

Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in a disciplined, compact match, shutting Bahia out entirely while keeping the scoreline tight.

Match resultPalmeiras
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
64% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 553 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
134%188 voters
PalmeirasCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
216%87 voters
PalmeirasCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
315%81 voters
PalmeirasCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
411%61 voters
PalmeirasCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
56%33 voters
BahiaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
64%24 voters
BahiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
74%21 voters
BahiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
84%20 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
93%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
102%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (553 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 381 · 15%
2 / 3183 · 33%
1 / 3244 · 44%
0 / 345 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=553). Average 1.54 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches