All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Upset
Atlanta FalconsCrowd's pick · 50%23
Baltimore RavensWon · Crowd had 50%30
The verdict

The crowd backed Atlanta. Baltimore Ravens won 23–30.

Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points below the market's price on Atlanta, and it went the other way.

50%Crowd on Atlanta
73%Market price
-23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsSurprise
Baltimore win by 3 or…Crowd beat the market
there be more than 45.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario50%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Atlanta Falcons50%
Baltimore Ravens ✓50%
OutcomeBaltimore Ravens
Voters4
ReadUpset
2Will Baltimore win by 3 or more?
Yes ✓50%
No50%
OutcomeYes
Voters4
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 45.5 points?
Over 45.5 ✓50%
Under 45.550%
OutcomeOver 45.5
Voters4
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Atlanta ✓50%
Baltimore25%
Tie25%
OutcomeAtlanta
Voters4
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Atlanta FalconsUpset
Mkt 62%Crowd 50%-12pp
Result: Baltimore Ravens · 0.50
: Deep
Will Baltimore win by 3 or more: YesCrowd
Mkt 34%Crowd 50%+16pp
Result: Yes · 0.50
: Deep
Will there be more than 45.5 points: Over 45.5Crowd
Mkt 44%Crowd 50%+6pp
Result: Over 45.5 · 0.50
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: AtlantaConsensus
Mkt 73%Crowd 50%-23pp
Result: Atlanta · 0.38
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.50
Will Baltimore win by 3 or more0.50
Will there be more than 45.5 points0.50
Who leads at half-time0.38
Average0.47
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 50% of voters

A high-scoring Falcons victory taking shape early, Atlanta controlling the half and pulling away without covering a big Baltimore margin.

Who wins?Atlanta Falcons
Will Baltimore win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Over 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Atlanta
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A disciplined Ravens grind, Baltimore seizing the half-time lead and controlling tempo through a low-scoring, margin-covering road win.

Who wins?Baltimore Ravens
Will Baltimore win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Under 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Baltimore
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A tight, defensive first half ending level before Baltimore asserts control and pulls clear for a winning margin of three or more.

Who wins?Baltimore Ravens
Will Baltimore win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Under 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Baltimore win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 45.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
150%2 voters
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 45.5Called it!
AtlantaCalled it!
8.0×
225%1 voter
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Under 45.5Got it wrong
BaltimoreGot it wrong
8.0×
325%1 voter
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Under 45.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
8.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.88How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call8.0×The most-backed combination drew 8.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-16. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 44 · 100%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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